Will AI Replace Physicians in the Near Future? AI Adoption Barriers in Medicine
Заменит ли искусственный интеллект врачей в ближайшем будущем? Барьеры внедрения ИИ в медицине
2026-01-26
SCID: 54.1/56eb4y4n
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AI adoption barriersconvolutional neural networkslarge language modelsout-of-distribution generalizationphysician oversight
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Abstract (AI)
Objectives: This study aims to evaluate whether contemporary artificial intelligence (AI), including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for medical imaging and large language models (LLMs) for language processing, could replace physicians in the near future and to identify the principal clinical, technical, and regulatory barriers. Methods: A narrative review is conducted on the scientific literature addressing AI performance and reproducibility in medical imaging, LLM competence in medical knowledge assessment and patient communication, limitations in out-of-distribution generalization, absence of physical examination and sensory inputs, and current regulatory and legal frameworks, particularly within the European Union. Results: AI systems demonstrate high accuracy and reproducibility in narrowly defined tasks, such as image interpretation, lesion measurement, triage, documentation support, and written communication. These capabilities reduce interobserver variability and support workflow efficiency. However, major obstacles to physician replacement persist, including limited generalization beyond training distributions, inability to perform physical examination or procedural tasks, susceptibility of LLMs to hallucinations and overconfidence, unresolved issues of legal liability at higher levels of autonomy, and the continued requirement for clinician oversight. Conclusions: In the foreseeable future, AI will augment rather than replace physicians. The most realistic trajectory involves automation of well-defined tasks under human supervision, while clinical integration, physical examination, procedural performance, ethical judgment, and accountability remain physician-dependent. Future adoption should prioritize robust clinical validation, uncertainty management, escalation pathways to clinicians, and clear regulatory and legal frameworks.
Key Findings
1
AI demonstrates high accuracy and reproducibility in narrowly defined medical tasks, including image interpretation, lesion measurement, triage, documentation, and written communication.
2
AI reduces interobserver variability and improves workflow efficiency, but its capabilities remain task-specific rather than equivalent to comprehensive clinical practice.
3
In the foreseeable future, AI is expected to augment physicians by automating well-defined tasks under supervision rather than replacing them.
4
Legal liability, regulatory uncertainty, and the continuing need for clinician oversight remain major barriers to replacing physicians.
5
Limited out-of-distribution generalization, inability to perform physical examinations or procedures, and LLM hallucinations constrain autonomous clinical use.
6
Safe adoption requires robust clinical validation, uncertainty management, clinician escalation pathways, and clear regulatory and legal frameworks.
Research Object
Contemporary artificial intelligence systems used in medicine, including CNNs for medical imaging and LLMs for language processing
Research Subject
AI capabilities, adoption barriers, and limits of autonomy in performing clinical tasks and replacing physicians, including generalization, physical examination, procedural performance, reliability, oversight, liability, and regulation
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2026-01-26
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