Great Power Competition in Territorial Autonomies: The Case of Gagauzia

Abstract: Gagauzia is a territorial autonomy in EU-inclined Moldova, primarily inhabited by the Gagauzians, a people of Christian Orthodox faith and Turkic origin. Thus, Gagauzia belongs to three civilizations: Russian, Turkic, and European. This unique position has attracted the attention of Russia, Turkey, and the EU, leading to competition over Gagauzia's civilizational identity. Turkey and the EU aim to bolster Gagauzia's weaker Turkic and European identities at the expense of its stronger Russian identity, which Russia seeks to preserve. Importantly, this rivalry serves as a means for these powers to advance their interests in the Gagauzia metropolis, Moldova. In this study, I examine the intensified competition for Gagauzia's civilizational identity since around 2015. Given the emphasis on soft power by all parties, I employ an analytical framework of soft power deployment. This includes an analysis of the policy objectives of Russia, Turkey, and the EU; their soft empowerment activity (leveraging resources and transmitting them to the Gagauz audience) and disempowerment activity; the reception of these efforts in Gagauzia; the resulting policy outcomes; and Gagauzia's response to this competition.