Change detection in hydrological records—a review of the methodology / Revue méthodologique de la détection de changements dans les chroniques hydrologiques
Выявление изменений в гидрологических рядах — обзор методологии
2004-02-01
SCID: 54.1/6k9kmaxm
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change detectiondistribution-free testshydrological time seriesresampling methodsserial correlation
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Abstract (AI)
General guidance is offered as to the methodology of change detection in time series of hydrological data, embracing stages such as preparing a suitable data set, exploratory analysis, application of adequate statistical tests and interpretation of results. Although the paper cannot go into full details of the many existing tests, it gives an easy-to-follow overview, offering practical hints and describing caveats and misconceptions. It serves as a refresher, raising attention to essential things that have often been ignored. A particular recommendation of the paper is that greater use of distribution-free testing methods, particularly resampling methods, should be made. These methods are recommended because they are particularly suited to hydrological data, which are often strongly skewed (non-normal), seasonal and serially correlated. Resampling techniques are flexible, robust and powerful, and require only minimal assumptions to be made about the data.
Key Findings
1
Distribution-free and especially resampling methods are recommended because they accommodate skewed, seasonal, and serially correlated hydrological data.
2
It highlights commonly neglected issues, caveats, and misconceptions that can undermine hydrological change-detection analyses.
3
Resampling techniques are characterized as flexible, robust, powerful, and requiring only minimal assumptions about the underlying data.
4
The paper provides practical methodological guidance for detecting changes in hydrological time series, from data preparation and exploratory analysis to testing and interpretation.
5
The review serves as an accessible overview and refresher rather than a comprehensive treatment of every available statistical test.
Research Object
time series of hydrological data
Research Subject
methodology for detecting changes in hydrological records, including data preparation, exploratory analysis, statistical testing, and result interpretation
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2004-02-01
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