Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract Beginning in 2016, all couples in China were allowed to have two children without any restrictions. This paper provides population and economic projections under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and three fertility policies. By replacing the one‐child policy with the two‐child policy, the population is predicted to continue growing until 2025–2035, with a peak of approximately 1.39–1.42 billion, and then to decline under four SSPs, with the exception of the fragmented world SSP3. As a result, the two‐child policy will lead to mitigation of the pressure from labor shortages and aging problems to a certain extent. In addition, an increase in working‐age people with higher education level relative to projections based on the one‐child policy will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by approximately 38.1–43.9% in the late 21st century. However, labor shortages and aging problems are inevitable, and the proportion of elderly in China will be greater than 14% and 21% by approximately 2025 and 2035, respectively. Full liberalization of fertility is expected to reduce the share of elderly people by 0.7–1.0% and to lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 5.3–6.7% relative to the two‐child policy in the late 21st century. The full liberalization of fertility policies is recommended, supplemented by increases in pension and child‐rearing funds, improvement in the quality of health services for females and children, and extension of compulsory education to meet the needs of an aged society.