Volcanic eruptions caused weakening AMOC during the preindustrial past millennium
Вулканические извержения вызвали ослабление АМОК в доиндустриальное прошлое тысячелетие
2026-06-27
SCID: 54.1/9vzdgjec
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AMOC weakeningAtlantic Meridional Overturning CirculationLittle Ice Ageexplosive volcanic eruptionspaleo Data Assimilation
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Abstract (AI)
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of our climate system. However, the evolution history and the forcing mechanism of AMOC in the last millennial has remained uncertain. Here, combining available paleo AMOC-sensitive indicators with multiple climate models and paleo Data Assimilation, we show, for the first time, that the AMOC transport exhibits a slow declining trend into the Little Ice Age, with a reduction of about $$-0.7\,\pm 0.4{Sv}.$$ (~4%) from AD 850-1850. This weakening is mainly caused by explosive volcanic eruptions. After a rapid strengthening in the initial decade following a volcanic eruption, the AMOC tends to show a slow weakening of centennial timescale, driven by stored cooling in the deep Atlantic and its feedback on North Atlantic climate. A combined model-data study shows that volcanic eruptions caused the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by ~0.7 Sv. during the past millennium before industrial revolution.
Key Findings
1
A combined analysis of paleo AMOC-sensitive indicators, multiple climate models, and paleo data assimilation attributes roughly 0.7 Sv AMOC weakening to volcanic eruptions before the industrial revolution.
2
AMOC transport shows a slow declining trend into the Little Ice Age, decreasing by about -0.7 ± 0.4 Sv (~4%) from AD 850–1850.
3
Explosive volcanic eruptions are identified as the main cause of the AMOC weakening during the preindustrial past millennium.
4
Following a volcanic eruption, AMOC initially strengthens rapidly in the first decade, then undergoes a centennial-scale slow weakening.
5
The centennial weakening is driven by stored cooling in the deep Atlantic and its feedbacks on North Atlantic climate.
Research Object
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the preindustrial past millennium (AD 850–1850)
Research Subject
Weakening of AMOC transport (≈−0.7 ± 0.4 Sv, ~4%) over AD 850–1850 and its cause by explosive volcanic eruptions, including post-eruption short-term strengthening and subsequent centennial-timescale weakening driven by deep Atlantic cooling and feedbacks on North Atlantic climate
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2026-06-27
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