Volcanic eruptions caused weakening AMOC during the preindustrial past millennium

Вулканические извержения вызвали ослабление АМОК в доиндустриальное прошлое тысячелетие
Liang Ning, Michael Mann, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Weiyi Sun, Mi Yan, Yuntao Bao, Qin Wen, Lili Lei, Kefan Chen, H S Sun, Wenqing Hu, Peng Gu, Yanmin Qin, Fangmiao Xing, Lingwei Li, J Q Du
2026-06-27

AMOC weakeningAtlantic Meridional Overturning CirculationLittle Ice Ageexplosive volcanic eruptionspaleo Data Assimilation
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of our climate system. However, the evolution history and the forcing mechanism of AMOC in the last millennial has remained uncertain. Here, combining available paleo AMOC-sensitive indicators with multiple climate models and paleo Data Assimilation, we show, for the first time, that the AMOC transport exhibits a slow declining trend into the Little Ice Age, with a reduction of about $$-0.7\,\pm 0.4{Sv}.$$ (~4%) from AD 850-1850. This weakening is mainly caused by explosive volcanic eruptions. After a rapid strengthening in the initial decade following a volcanic eruption, the AMOC tends to show a slow weakening of centennial timescale, driven by stored cooling in the deep Atlantic and its feedback on North Atlantic climate. A combined model-data study shows that volcanic eruptions caused the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by ~0.7 Sv. during the past millennium before industrial revolution.
1
A combined analysis of paleo AMOC-sensitive indicators, multiple climate models, and paleo data assimilation attributes roughly 0.7 Sv AMOC weakening to volcanic eruptions before the industrial revolution.
2
AMOC transport shows a slow declining trend into the Little Ice Age, decreasing by about -0.7 ± 0.4 Sv (~4%) from AD 850–1850.
3
Explosive volcanic eruptions are identified as the main cause of the AMOC weakening during the preindustrial past millennium.
4
Following a volcanic eruption, AMOC initially strengthens rapidly in the first decade, then undergoes a centennial-scale slow weakening.
5
The centennial weakening is driven by stored cooling in the deep Atlantic and its feedbacks on North Atlantic climate.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the preindustrial past millennium (AD 850–1850)

Weakening of AMOC transport (≈−0.7 ± 0.4 Sv, ~4%) over AD 850–1850 and its cause by explosive volcanic eruptions, including post-eruption short-term strengthening and subsequent centennial-timescale weakening driven by deep Atlantic cooling and feedbacks on North Atlantic climate

Publication Details
Publication Date
2026-06-27
Journal
Publisher
ISSN
Cited by
0
Access Type
Author Information
Authors
Liang Ning
Michael Mann
Zhengyu Liu
Jian Liu
Weiyi Sun
Mi Yan
Yuntao Bao
Qin Wen
Lili Lei
Kefan Chen
H S Sun
Wenqing Hu
Peng Gu
Yanmin Qin
Fangmiao Xing
Lingwei Li
J Q Du
Explore further
Open the scid.ai AI chat with a ready-made request: it will find papers on a similar topic and help build a literature review.
Find similar papers in the chat
Make a presentation
100%