CONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF THE TANECO PET CHAIN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL PROJECT «NEW MATERIALS AND CHEMISTRY»

The article examines the economic efficiency of an investment project aimed at establishing a vertically integrated polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production chain based at TANECO JSC (Tatneft Group). The project is considered within the framework of the national technological leadership project «New Materials and Chemistry», launched in January 2025 to reduce Russia’s import dependence in petrochemicals. Based on publicly available data and an original DCF model, the capital expenditure estimate (approximately RUB 109 billion) is assessed, the structure of the paraxylene–PTA–PET production chain (347 kt, 1,000 kt and 450 kt respectively) is analysed, and key investment attractiveness indicators are calculated: NPV, IRR and discounted payback period (DPP). The discount rate is derived through the CAPM model with the Hamada equation for two financing scenarios: commercial (WACC 18.0%) and preferential with FRP and SPIC 2.0 support (WACC 14.3%). A scenario and tornado sensitivity analysis is conducted. Under the preferential financing NPV becomes positive. The project is of strategic importance for Russia’s technological sovereignty in the polyester segment and eliminates the vulnerability arising from critical dependence of the domestic PTA market on a single Chinese supply route.