Confidence intervals rather than P values: estimation rather than hypothesis testing.

Доверительные интервалы, а не значения P: оценивание вместо проверки гипотез
Douglas G. Altman, Michael Gardner
1986-03-15

P valuesconfidence intervalsestimationgraphical displayhypothesis testing
Overemphasis on hypothesis testing--and the use of P values to dichotomise significant or non-significant results--has detracted from more useful approaches to interpreting study results, such as estimation and confidence intervals. In medical studies investigators are usually interested in determining the size of difference of a measured outcome between groups, rather than a simple indication of whether or not it is statistically significant. Confidence intervals present a range of values, on the basis of the sample data, in which the population value for such a difference may lie. Some methods of calculating confidence intervals for means and differences between means are given, with similar information for proportions. The paper also gives suggestions for graphical display. Confidence intervals, if appropriate to the type of study, should be used for major findings in both the main text of a paper and its abstract.
1
Confidence intervals provide a sample-based range of plausible values for the corresponding population difference.
2
Confidence intervals should be reported for major findings in both the main text and abstract when appropriate for the study design.
3
Dichotomizing results as statistically significant or non-significant using P values can detract from more informative interpretation.
4
Medical studies generally require estimating the magnitude of outcome differences between groups, rather than merely testing statistical significance.
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The paper describes methods for calculating confidence intervals for means, differences between means, and proportions, along with graphical presentation approaches.

Measured outcomes and population differences between medical study groups

Estimation of the magnitude of group differences using confidence intervals rather than dichotomous hypothesis testing and P values

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1986-03-15
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Authors
Douglas G. Altman
Michael Gardner
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