Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs

Сильно фрагментированные европейские водно-болотные угодья с неоднородными потребностями в восстановлении
Gyula Mate Kovács, Xiaoye Tong, Dimitri Gominski, Stefan Oehmcke, Stéphanie Horion, Christin Abel, Eva Ivits, Guy Schurgers, Bo Elberling, Alexander Prishchepov, Sebastian van der Linden, Susan Page, Alexandra Barthelmes, Franziska Tanneberger, Rasmus Fensholt
2026-07-15

10-m satellite imageryEuropean wetlandsNature Restoration Law (NRL)machine learning mappingwetland fragmentation
European wetlands store large carbon reserves1, but centuries of land use have eroded carbon stocks and biodiversity2. The European Union (EU) Nature Restoration Law (NRL)3 requires at least 30% of wetland ecosystems not in ‘good condition’ to be restored by 2030, yet spatially consistent information on wetland types and condition remains scarce. Using 10-m satellite imagery and machine learning, we map six seminatural open wetland types and land-use disturbance across 38 European countries. Wetlands are highly fragmented, with an estimated 27–33% of wetland area occurring in map-defined patches <25 ha and 7–11% in patches <1 ha, exposing many small sites missed by coarser products. We estimate that human activities affect 20.4 ± 3.4% of wetland areas (95% confidence interval), with inland wetland types most affected, and up to 5 Gt CO2-eq of soil carbon potentially lost relative to an undisturbed baseline. Translating disturbed area into NRL restoration targets, we find that several countries’ pledges are broadly consistent with our 2030 estimates, whereas others lack quantified commitments despite substantial candidate areas identified by our maps. The resulting standardized, high-resolution products provide an EU-wide baseline tailored to the NRL and a reproducible template for linking satellite mapping to restoration targets, supporting progress tracking. Satellite imagery and machine learning used for the mapping of six seminatural open wetland types and land-use disturbance in European countries shows that wetlands are highly fragmented and have uneven restoration needs.
1
Comparing disturbed area to NRL restoration targets shows several countries’ pledges broadly align with 2030 estimates, while other countries lack quantified commitments despite substantial candidate areas identified by the maps.
2
European wetlands are highly fragmented: an estimated 27–33% of wetland area occurs in patches <25 ha and 7–11% in patches <1 ha, revealing many small sites missed by coarser products.
3
Human activities affect 20.4 ± 3.4% (95% CI) of wetland areas, with inland wetland types most affected, implying up to 5 Gt CO2-eq of soil carbon potentially lost relative to an undisturbed baseline.
4
The created high-resolution, reproducible mapping approach provides a template to link satellite-derived disturbance mapping to restoration targets and to support progress tracking under the NRL.
5
Using 10-m satellite imagery and machine learning, six seminatural open wetland types and land-use disturbance were mapped across 38 European countries, producing a standardized, high-resolution EU-wide baseline tailored to the Nature Restoration Law (NRL).

European seminatural open wetlands mapped across 38 countries

Spatial fragmentation, land-use disturbance extent, carbon-stock loss estimates, and uneven restoration needs relative to the EU Nature Restoration Law targets

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2026-07-15
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Gyula Mate Kovács
Xiaoye Tong
Dimitri Gominski
Stefan Oehmcke
Stéphanie Horion
Christin Abel
Eva Ivits
Guy Schurgers
Bo Elberling
Alexander Prishchepov
Sebastian van der Linden
Susan Page
Alexandra Barthelmes
Franziska Tanneberger
Rasmus Fensholt
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