When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?
Когда мультипликатор государственных расходов велик?
2011-02-01
SCID: 54.1/csjaa4v5
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dynamic stochastic general equilibriumfinancial crisisgovernment-spending multipliernominal interest ratezero lower bound
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Abstract (AI)
We argue that the government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds. The larger is the fraction of government spending that occurs while the nominal interest rate is zero, the larger is the value of the multiplier. After providing intuition for these results, we investigate the size of the multiplier in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model. In this model the multiplier e�ect is substantially larger than one when the zero bound binds. Our model is consistent with the behavior of key macro aggregates during the recent financial crisis. We thank the editor, Monika Piazzesi, Rob Shimer, and two anonymous referees for their
Key Findings
1
A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model predicts a substantially larger-than-one multiplier during zero-bound episodes.
2
The government-spending multiplier can substantially exceed one when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds.
3
The model reproduces the behavior of key macroeconomic aggregates observed during the recent financial crisis.
4
The multiplier increases with the fraction of government spending undertaken while the nominal interest rate is at zero.
Research Object
government spending under a binding zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate
Research Subject
the size of the government-spending multiplier and its dependence on the fraction of spending undertaken when the nominal interest rate is zero
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2011-02-01
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