Major Trends in Population Growth Around the World
Основные тенденции роста численности населения в мире
2021-01-01
SCID: 54.1/e5va3ey7
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fertility declineinternational migrationpopulation agingpopulation growthpopulation momentum
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Abstract (AI)
The world's population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The decelerating growth is mainly attributable to fertility declines in a growing number of countries. However, there are substantial variations in the future trends of populations across regions and countries, with sub-Saharan African countries being projected to have most of the increase. Population momentum plays an important role in determining the future population growth in many countries and areas where fertility is in a rapid transition. With declines in fertility, the world's population is unprecedentedly aging, and the numbers of households with smaller sizes are growing. International migration is also on the rise since the beginning of this century. The world's population is also urbanizing due to increased internal rural to urban migration. Nevertheless, there are uncertainties in future population growth, not only because there are uncertainties in the future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, but also because there are many other factors that could affect these trajectories. International consensus on climate change and ecosystem protections may trigger population control policies, and the ongoing pandemic is likely to have some impact on mortality, migration, or even fertility.
Key Findings
1
Declining fertility is driving unprecedented global population aging and an increase in smaller households.
2
Future population increases will vary substantially by region, with sub-Saharan Africa projected to account for most of the growth.
3
Global population growth is continuing but slowing, primarily because fertility is declining across an increasing number of countries.
4
International migration and urbanization are rising, while future population trajectories remain uncertain because of fertility, mortality, migration, climate policies, ecosystem protection, and the pandemic.
5
Population momentum will significantly shape future growth in countries and regions undergoing rapid fertility transitions.
Research Object
global population and its regional and national populations
Research Subject
major demographic trends and drivers of population change, including fertility decline, population momentum, aging, household-size reduction, migration, urbanization, and uncertainty in future growth
Publication Details
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2021-01-01
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