Immigration and Voting for the Far Right

Иммиграция и голосование за крайне правых
Martin Halla, Alexander F. Wagner, Josef Zweimüller
2017-03-07

Freedom Party of Austriacompositional amenitiesfar-right votingimmigration inflowslabor market effects
Does the presence of immigrants in one’s neighborhood affect voting for far right-wing parties? We study the case of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) that, under the leadership of Jörg Haider, increased its vote share from less than 5% in the early 1980s to 27% by the end of the 1990s and continued to attract more than 20% of voters in the 2013 national election. We find that the inflow of immigrants into a community has a significant impact on the increase in the community’s voting share for the FPÖ, explaining roughly a tenth of the regional variation in vote changes. Our results suggest that voters worry about adverse labor market effects of immigration, as well as about the quality of their neighborhood. In fact, we find evidence of a negative impact of immigration on “compositional amenities”. In communities with larger immigration influx, Austrian children commute longer distances to school, and fewer daycare resources are provided. We do not find evidence that Austrians move out of communities with increasing immigrant presence. (JEL: P16, J61)
1
Immigrant inflows into Austrian communities significantly increased their voting share for the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).
2
Immigration inflows explain roughly one-tenth of regional variation in changes in FPÖ vote shares.
3
Larger immigrant inflows negatively affected compositional amenities: Austrian children traveled farther to school and communities provided fewer daycare resources.
4
The findings suggest voters respond to perceived adverse labor-market effects and declining neighborhood quality associated with immigration.
5
The study finds no evidence that Austrian residents moved out of communities experiencing increasing immigrant presence.

Immigrant inflows into Austrian communities and voting for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ)

The effects of immigrant presence on FPÖ vote shares, labor-market concerns, neighborhood compositional amenities, school commuting distances, daycare provision, and residential mobility

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2017-03-07
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Authors
Martin Halla
Alexander F. Wagner
Josef Zweimüller
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