Lost circulation intensity characterization in drilling operations: Leveraging machine learning and well log data

Lost circulation is one of the important challenges in drilling operations and bears financial losses and operational risks. The prime causes of lost circulation are related to several geological parameters, especially in problem-prone formations. Herein, the approach of applying machine learning models to forecast the intensity of lost circulation using well-log data is presented in this work. It concerns a gas field in northern Iran and contains nine well logs with lost circulation incidents categorized into six intensity classes. After rigorous exploratory analysis and preprocessing of the data, seven machine learning methods are applied: Random Forest, Extra Trees, Decision Tree, XGBoost, k-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, and Hard Voting. Random Forest, Extra Trees, and Hard Voting are the best-performing methods. These models attained the most robust results on both key performance metrics and, hence, can predict the intensity of lost circulation quite well. Models of Extra Trees and Hard Voting show very high predictive performance values. On the other hand, their limitations in some intensity classes suggest further refinement. In this regard, the ensemble methods are highly effective for managing the multivariate nature of the task. Hard Voting aggregates multiple classifiers, becoming superior to individual models like support vector machines. This paper offers new insight into integrating machine learning to well-log data toward enhancing lost circulation prediction by offering a dependable foundation for real-time drilling decision-making. These results show that the models have the potential to lower operational risks, improve drilling safety, and minimize nonproductive time; hence, they form a quantum leap in lost circulation control.