Optimal Geomechanical Parameter Selection for Enhanced ROP Modeling: A Systematic Field-Based Comparative Study

Accurate prediction of Rate of Penetration (ROP) in carbonate formations remains constrained by the arbitrary selection of geomechanical input parameters in empirical drilling models. This study presents the first systematic field-based evaluation of sixteen geomechanical properties—grouped into three categories: strength parameters (uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), confined compressive strength (CCS), shear strength, thick-walled cylinder strength (TWC), friction angle, and cohesion), elastic moduli (Young’s modulus, shear modulus, bulk modulus, bulk compressibility, dynamic combined modulus (DCM), Poisson’s ratio, brittleness index), and in situ stress parameters (overburden pressure, minimum, and maximum horizontal stresses)—to identify optimal predictors for ROP modeling across PDC bit sizes of 12.25″ and 8.5″. Continuous wireline log data from two vertical carbonate wells in the Middle East (Well A: 1000–3370 m; Well B: 1945 to 3128 m; total intervals of 2370 m and 1183 m, respectively) penetrating formations comprising limestone, dolomite, sandstone, shale, anhydrite, and marly limestone were used. All sixteen geomechanical properties were computed using Interactive Petrophysics (IP) software with lithology-specific empirical correlations and validated against laboratory core measurements (R2 = 0.79–0.95). Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses quantified parameter–ROP relationships, and the Al-Abduljabbar empirical model, recalibrated via multiple nonlinear regression, served as the evaluation framework. DCM consistently exhibited the strongest negative correlation with ROP across both bit sizes and achieved the highest model accuracy (R2 = 0.54, AAPE = 25.33%), significantly outperforming the Bourgoyne and Young model (R2 = 0.26, AAPE = 36.55%). A statistically validated scale-dependent effect was identified: Fisher’s Z-transformation tests confirmed that the correlation reversal between CCS and UCS across bit sizes is statistically significant (CCS: Z = −16.84, p < 0.001; UCS: Z = −6.75, p < 0.001), establishing CCS as the superior predictor at 12.25″ and UCS as the superior predictor at 8.5″—a finding not previously reported in the ROP literature. This reversal is attributed to the larger contact area of the 12.25″ bit, which promotes confinement-dominated rock failure better described by CCS, whereas the smaller bit produces localized stress concentration better represented by UCS. These results establish that (1) optimal geomechanical input selection is bit-size dependent, (2) nonlinear modeling outperforms linear frameworks for strength–ROP relationships, and (3) parameter relevance outweighs coefficient tuning in model robustness. DCM is recommended as the most operationally practical universal input, requiring only conventional compressional sonic and density logs. This study provides a systematic framework for geomechanical parameter selection with direct implications for drilling optimization in heterogeneous carbonate reservoirs.