The wisdom of crowds emerges in flocks of thousands of migrating songbirds

Мудрость толпы проявляется в стаях тысяч мигрирующих певчих птиц
Richard P. Mann, Joe Morford, Patrick Lewin, Joe Wynn, Maria Carolina T. D. Belotti, Christopher Krupenye, Dora Biro
2026-06-24

flock size declinemany-wrongs effectmigratory songbirdsweather radar trackingwisdom of crowds
While enhanced decision-making in larger groups, known as the wisdom of crowds, has been demonstrated in controlled experimental conditions, the intractability of observing large-scale wild groups has limited the availability of evidence from natural systems. Addressing this challenge, we analyze migratory trajectories of flocks of thousands of wild songbirds extracted from 23 years of weather radar data across the Great Lakes of North America. We show that the wisdom of crowds emerged: Larger flocks oriented more accurately toward their population's migratory direction than smaller flocks. This likely emerged through the many-wrongs effect, with individual errors averaged out across flocks. Furthermore, flock size declined over time, a trend that may erode navigational performance and carry important ecological implications amid anthropogenic population fragmentation. Together, these findings reveal how the wisdom of crowds emerges in natural systems and underscore its role in shaping movement and ecological resilience in social animals.
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Analysis of 23 years of weather radar data across the Great Lakes shows the wisdom of crowds in wild migratory songbird flocks.
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Flock size declined over time across the study period.
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Larger flocks oriented more accurately toward their population's migratory direction than smaller flocks.
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The decline in flock size may erode navigational performance and has important ecological implications amid anthropogenic population fragmentation.
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The increased navigational accuracy in larger flocks likely arises from the many-wrongs effect, where individual errors are averaged out.

Flocks of thousands of wild migratory songbirds observed via weather radar across the Great Lakes

Emergence of the wisdom of crowds manifested as improved orientation accuracy with increasing flock size (many-wrongs averaging of individual navigational errors) and temporal decline in flock size affecting navigational performance

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2026-06-24
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Richard P. Mann
Joe Morford
Patrick Lewin
Joe Wynn
Maria Carolina T. D. Belotti
Christopher Krupenye
Dora Biro
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