Short-Term Arrival Delay Time Prediction in Freight Rail Operations Using Data-Driven Models

Despite rail’s growing popularity as a mode of freight transportation due to its role in intermodal transportation and numerous economic and environmental benefits, optimizing all aspects of rail infrastructure use remains a significant challenge. To address this issue, various methods for developing train disruption prediction models have been used. However, these models continue to struggle with accurately predicting short-term arrival delay times, as well as identifying the causes of delays and the expected impact on operations. The lack of information available to operators makes it difficult for them to effectively mitigate the effects of disruptions. The goal of this study is to investigate a set of data-driven models for the short-term prediction of arrival delay time using data from the National Railway Company of Luxembourg of freight rail operations between Bettembourg (Luxembourg) and other nine terminal stations across the EU, and then investigate the effects of the features associated with the arrival delay time. For our dataset, the lightGBM model outperformed other models in predicting the arrival delay time in freight rail operations, with departure delay time, trip distance, and train composition appearing to be the most influential features in predicting the arrival delay time in the short-term. The National Railway Company of Luxembourg can use the short-term prediction model developed in this study as a decision-support system. For example, knowing a train’s arrival delay time allows you to estimate future operational time, providing more support to reduce disruptions and subsequent operational delays via a simple web service.