Card guessing and the birthday problem for sampling without replacement

Угадывание карт и задача о днях рождения при выборке без возвращения
Jimmy He, Andrea Ottolini
2023-12-01

Stein's methodbirthday problemcard guessingsampling without replacementsharp asymptotics
Consider a uniformly random deck consisting of cards labelled by numbers from 1 through n, possibly with repeats. A guesser guesses the top card, after which it is revealed and removed and the game continues. What is the expected number of correct guesses under the best and worst strategies? We establish sharp asymptotics for both strategies. For the worst case, this answers a recent question of Diaconis, Graham, He and Spiro, who found the correct order. As part of the proof, we study the birthday problem for sampling without replacement using Stein’s method.
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It establishes sharp asymptotics for the expected number of correct guesses under both optimal and worst guessing strategies.
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The paper analyzes expected correct guesses when sequentially guessing cards from a uniformly random deck with repeated labels and sampling without replacement.
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The proofs develop a Stein’s method analysis of the birthday problem for sampling without replacement.
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The worst-case analysis resolves a recent question by Diaconis, Graham, He, and Spiro after their work identified the correct order of magnitude.

a uniformly random deck of cards labeled 1 through n, possibly with repeated labels, sampled without replacement

the expected number of correct sequential card guesses under optimal and pessimal strategies, including its sharp asymptotics, and the associated birthday-collision behavior for sampling without replacement

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Publication Date
2023-12-01
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Authors
Jimmy He
Andrea Ottolini
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