Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt
Моделирование суверенных спредов доходности: исследование российского долга
2003-02-01
SCID: 54.1/ruaqr4zg
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Russian dollar-denominated bondsdefault and restructuring riskilliquidity premiumsovereign debt pricingsovereign yield spreads
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Abstract (AI)
We construct a model for pricing sovereign debt that accounts for the risks of both default and restructuring, and allows for compensation for illiquidity. Using a new and relatively efficient method, we estimate the model using Russian dollar‐denominated bonds. We consider the determinants of the Russian yield spread, the yield differential across different Russian bonds, and the implications for market integration, relative liquidity, relative expected recovery rates, and implied expectations of different default scenarios.
Key Findings
1
A new, relatively efficient estimation method is applied to Russian dollar-denominated bonds.
2
The analysis evaluates market integration, relative liquidity, expected recovery rates, and implied expectations for alternative default scenarios.
3
The model examines determinants of Russian sovereign yield spreads and yield differences across individual Russian bonds.
4
The paper develops a sovereign debt pricing model incorporating default risk, restructuring risk, and compensation for illiquidity.
Research Object
Russian dollar-denominated sovereign bonds and their yield spreads
Research Subject
The determinants and cross-bond variation of yield spreads, including the effects of default, restructuring, illiquidity, market integration, relative liquidity, expected recovery rates, and implied default expectations
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Publication Date
2003-02-01
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