Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture
Трансформация продовольственных систем изменит мировое сельское хозяйство
2026-07-15
SCID: 54.1/s7epbm6a
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EAT–Lancet reference dietagricultural land changefood systems transformationlivestock production declinemultimodel ensemble
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Abstract (AI)
Abstract Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries 1–3 and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally 4 . Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges 5 . In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems 6–8 . However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT– Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to −26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (−2% to −32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to −58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (−49% to −83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (−33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.
Key Findings
1
By 2050 agricultural production quantity would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (range −2% to −32%).
2
Median agricultural land area would decrease by 6% relative to 2020 (range +1% to −26%) under the transformation scenario.
3
Results depend on the policies assumed to achieve the transformation, implying food policy must actively manage health, environmental benefits, and political-economy impacts.
4
The economic value of agricultural production in 2050 would be US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower than business-as-usual (+8% to −58%).
5
Transformation to healthy diets (EAT–Lancet), higher productivity, and halved food waste by 2050 would restructure global agriculture, breaking historical trends.
6
Value of livestock production would decline substantially relative to 2050 projections (range −49% to −83%), while value of vegetables, fruits, nuts and legumes would increase by 23% (range −33% to +106%).
Research Object
Global agriculture (land use, production and economic value across crop and livestock sectors) by 2050
Research Subject
Impacts of transforming food systems toward healthy diets, improved productivity and halved food waste on agricultural land area, production volumes, and economic value (including sectoral shifts between livestock and plant-based products)
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2026-07-15
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