The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: Varieties of “left-behindedness”

A well-established narrative has existed for some time in British politics: “left behind” places are gradually moving to the Conservatives as Labour dominate in urban, “cosmopolitan” areas. Merging constituency-level census data with election results, this article applies various regression techniques to test this idea on multiple definitions of “left-behindedness” at every general election between 1979 and 2017 in England and Wales. Conclusive results indicate that the Conservatives have gained support at Labour's expense in largely older, white, working class constituencies. However, Labour remain dominant in disadvantaged areas with high levels of insecure employment and poverty remains the most important positive predictor of Labour's support. It is therefore premature to argue that “left behind” places are moving from Labour to the Conservatives, providing that “left behind” is re-conceptualised to refer to the most disadvantaged areas rather than older, white, “traditional working class” populations.