The impact of flooding on road transport: A depth-disruption function

Влияние наводнений на дорожный транспорт: функция зависимости нарушения движения от глубины воды
Maria Pregnolato, Alistair Ford, Sean M. Wilkinson, Richard Dawson
2017-06-24

Newcastle upon Tyne floodflood depth-disruption functionflood risk analysisroad transport disruptionvehicle speed
• Transport networks underpin economic cities competiveness and society functioning. • During flooding transport infrastructure can be directly or indirectly damaged. • This paper reviewed modelling studies of the impacts of weather on transport. • The paper derived a new empirical function to relate flood depth and vehicle speed. • The function move forwards from the binary consideration of flood roads. • The function can be incorporated into flood risk analysis and transport appraisal. Transport networks underpin economic activity by enabling the movement of goods and people. During extreme weather events transport infrastructure can be directly or indirectly damaged, posing a threat to human safety, and causing significant disruption and associated economic and social impacts. Flooding, especially as a result of intense precipitation, is the predominant cause of weather-related disruption to the transport sector. Existing approaches to assess the disruptive impact of flooding on road transport fail to capture the interactions between floodwater and the transport system, typically assuming a road is fully operational or fully blocked, which is not supported by observations. In this paper we develop a relationship between depth of standing water and vehicle speed. The function that describes this relationship has been constructed by fitting a curve to video analysis supplemented by a range of quantitative data that has be extracted from existing studies and other safety literature. The proposed relationship is a good fit to the observed data, with an R-squared of 0.95. The significance of this work is that it is simple to incorporate our function into existing transport models to produce better estimates of flood induced delays and we demonstrate this with an example from the 28 th June 2012 flood in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
1
An example based on the 28 June 2012 flood in Newcastle upon Tyne demonstrates the function’s application to transport disruption analysis.
2
Existing flood-impact models often treat roads as either fully operational or fully blocked, failing to represent gradual disruption caused by floodwater.
3
The function can be incorporated into transport models and flood-risk assessments to estimate flood-induced delays more realistically.
4
The proposed depth–vehicle-speed relationship fits observed data well, achieving an R-squared value of 0.95.
5
The study derives an empirical depth-disruption function linking standing-water depth to vehicle speed using video analysis and quantitative evidence from prior studies and safety literature.

road transport during flooding, specifically roads and vehicles exposed to standing floodwater

the relationship between floodwater depth and vehicle speed, representing flood-induced disruption to road transport

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2017-06-24
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Maria Pregnolato
Alistair Ford
Sean M. Wilkinson
Richard Dawson
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