Methods for Estimation of Multiplier Effect of Investments in Development of Infrastructure of Inland Water Transport in the Russian Federation in the Frameworks of Federal Target Programs

The offered method for estimation of influence of investments in development of infrastructure of inland waterways provided by Transport strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and Federal target program “The development of transportation system of the Russian Federation (2010-2020s)” on growth of economy of Russia allows estimating the integral multiplier effect. In the study there are methodological approaches and estimations of multiplier effect of investments in realization of number of major investment projects for liquidation of limiting sites on Single Deep-Water System (SDWS) of European part of Russia with use of transport and production multipliers. The offered method provides detalization of economic effect when forecasting and control for realization of Federal target programs on water transport. The mechanism of estimation of branch effect offered by authors is detailed in sources of gaining economic growth in a branch (the direct and indirect branch effect) and allied branches that helps to get the notion of objectives and forecasts of their development for the period of program validity and subsequent period of objects’ operation. There is also a graphic structural diagram that provides considering the structure of multiplier effect and following the interrelation of indicators—the estimation elements. The offered algorithm of estimation of single multiplier effect elements provides discerning the sequence and the way of estimation of main effectiveness indicators of Federal target programs. In the paper there are also the results of estimation by offered diagram with use of software on the data of Federal target program “Development of transportation system of the Russian Federation (2010-2020s)” and Transport strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 designed by the authors. Using the results of estimations we have also performed the quantitative estimation of multiplier effect of investments in liquidation of limiting sites on SDWS that makes up 1295 bln. rbs.