Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections
Формирование привычки к голосованию: свидетельства на основе дождливых выборов
2016-09-28
SCID: 54.1/szs8376e
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US presidential electionshabit formationrainfall shockssocial spilloversvoter turnout
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Abstract (AI)
We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6–1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers. (JEL D72, D83, N42)
Key Findings
1
A one-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by an estimated 0.6–1.0 points.
2
Habit formation appears to reinforce the direct consumption value of voting, while social spillovers may amplify the estimates.
3
Transitory rainfall shocks to voting costs are used to estimate how past turnout affects current turnout.
4
Using county-level U.S. presidential election data from 1952–2012, rainfall on current and previous election days reduces voter turnout.
Research Object
County-level voter turnout in US presidential elections from 1952–2012
Research Subject
Habit formation in voting: the effect of past turnout on current turnout, including the roles of voting’s direct consumption value and social spillovers
Publication Details
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2016-09-28
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