Spread of risk across financial markets: better to invest in the peripheries

Распределение риска на финансовых рынках: лучше инвестировать в периферийные области
F. Pozzi, Tiziana Di Matteo, Tomaso Aste
2013-04-16

Minimum Spanning TreesPlanar Maximally Filtered Graphsfinancial market networksfinancial risk reductionportfolio diversification
Risk is not uniformly spread across financial markets and this fact can be exploited to reduce investment risk contributing to improve global financial stability. We discuss how, by extracting the dependency structure of financial equities, a network approach can be used to build a well-diversified portfolio that effectively reduces investment risk. We find that investments in stocks that occupy peripheral, poorly connected regions in financial filtered networks, namely Minimum Spanning Trees and Planar Maximally Filtered Graphs, are most successful in diversifying, improving the ratio between returns' average and standard deviation, reducing the likelihood of negative returns, while keeping profits in line with the general market average even for small baskets of stocks. On the contrary, investments in subsets of central, highly connected stocks are characterized by greater risk and worse performance. This methodology has the added advantage of visualizing portfolio choices directly over the graphic layout of the network.
1
Financial dependency structures can be extracted into Minimum Spanning Trees and Planar Maximally Filtered Graphs to guide portfolio diversification.
2
Peripheral-stock portfolios maintain profits close to the overall market average, even when containing only small baskets of stocks.
3
Portfolios composed of peripheral, poorly connected stocks achieve better average-return-to-standard-deviation ratios and lower probabilities of negative returns.
4
Portfolios concentrated in central, highly connected stocks exhibit greater risk and poorer performance; network layouts also directly visualize portfolio choices.
5
Risk is unevenly distributed across financial markets, enabling network-based strategies to reduce portfolio risk and support global financial stability.

Financial equity markets and stock portfolios represented by filtered dependency networks

The relationship between network peripherality or centrality of stocks and portfolio diversification, investment risk, return-to-volatility performance, and likelihood of negative returns

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2013-04-16
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Authors
F. Pozzi
Tiziana Di Matteo
Tomaso Aste
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