Linear Transformation Method in the Formation of the Personal Income Tax Scale in Russia

Метод линейной трансформации при формировании шкалы налога на доходы физических лиц в России
Л.А. Гафарова
2025-01-01

linear transformation methodnon-taxable income minimumprogressive income tax scaleregression analysissavings behavior
The purpose of the article is a mathematical justification of the quantitative values of the main parameters of the progressive income tax scale in Russian conditions, considering social and economic parameters. Based on the methods of regression analysis, the boundary of the non-taxable minimum of income tax is determined as the extremum of the polynomial function of the second degree of savings behavior of the population from income. The non-taxable minimum is determined by considering the median income of 78% of the average per capita income. Within the framework of this stage, cross section data were used for 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation: the savings rate of the population and the average per capita income of the population. Our modified method of linear transformation, which considers differentiated taxation of income within separate tax intervals, allowed us to determine the income tax rates of the proposed tax scale. It is empirically confirmed that the proposed progressive income tax scale can provide significant social, economic and fiscal effects. The study showed that the proposed progressive scale has the greatest effect on regions with initially low parameters of socio-economic development. The rates of the progressive income tax scale substantiated in the study make it possible to ensure a reduction in the tax burden on low-income groups of the population, an increase in entrepreneurial and savings activity of the middle-income group of the population, and an increase in the role of high-income groups in the formation of the revenue side of the budget.
1
A modified linear transformation method determines differentiated tax rates across separate income intervals.
2
Regression analysis identifies the non-taxable income minimum using a second-degree polynomial extremum of population saving behavior.
3
The non-taxable minimum is set using median income corresponding to 78% of average per-capita income, based on data from 85 Russian regions.
4
The proposed progressive scale is expected to reduce low-income tax burdens, stimulate middle-income entrepreneurship and savings, and increase high-income contributions to budget revenues, with the strongest effects in less-developed regions.
5
The study mathematically derives parameters for a progressive personal income tax scale tailored to Russian socioeconomic conditions.

The progressive personal income tax scale in Russia

The quantitative tax-rate parameters and socioeconomic, behavioral, and fiscal effects of the progressive personal income tax scale, including its differentiated taxation across income intervals

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2025-01-01
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Л.А. Гафарова
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