Deconstructing the Conflict in Ukraine: The Relevance of International Law to Hybrid States and Wars

In Ukraine, spheres of political, military, and economic control are contested, non-transparent, and shifting. As the Ukrainian government lost control over the rebellious Eastern oblasts (regions) of the country, Russia denies its authority over various pro-Russian separatists and vigorously rejects any responsibility for the abuses by the unidentified “green men,” both before and after the annexation of Crimea. Even during the decades before this conflict, the rule of law in Ukraine was “thin” at best. Meaningful political control was sporadic and dispersed, often wielded by the mix of public, private, and other shady actors occupying the grey area between a functional and a dysfunctional state. If state actors never effectively took control over the events at the state-level during peaceful times, it is not surprising that it is more difficult once a “hot” conflict breaks out. It is not unreasonable to assume that Minsk agreements—signed in an effort to stop the hemorrhaging of the conflict—will not hold if the signatories do not effectively control the diverse public and private actors who possess the actual capacity to influence the dynamic on the ground. Before rendering any kind of juridical judgment, the complicated political and socioeconomic configuration of the conflict in Ukraine forces us to first confront a factual puzzle: Who and what influence the current situation? Which concrete actors really drive the conflict and what interests animate them?