Scenarios for the development of oil and gas companies in Russia in the context of international economic sanctions and the decarbonization of the energy sector.

Сценарии развития нефтегазовых компаний России в условиях международных экономических санкций и декарбонизации энергетического сектора
Alexandra A. Saitova, Alexander Ilyinsky, Alexey Fadeev
2022-09-29

Russian oil and gas industrycarbon footprint reductionenergy sector decarbonizationinternational economic sanctionsstrategic development scenarios
The current stage of development of the domestic energy industry is characterized by two key areas: the need to comply with global requirements in the field of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and large-scale international political and economic restrictions on Russia, which led to the transformation of the geopolitical map of the world and markets for Russian energy resources. It is becoming important to review and adapt strategic priorities in the field of sustainable development and growth directions for the domestic oil and gas complex, in particular the issues of reducing the carbon footprint during the period of sanctions. The purpose of the work is to analyze the stages of the modern development of the Russian oil and gas industry and develop strategic guidelines for overcoming the crisis associated with economic restrictions. Methodological and conceptual approaches of strategic management in the oil and gas sector are used. To analyze and identify possible solutions, it is proposed to divide the modern development of the oil and gas industry into stages related to the sequence of introducing international restrictive measures and domestic economic survival in the current situation. Various scenarios for overcoming the crisis are proposed, including the development of the domestic market for the consumption of hydrocarbons, the formation of logistics and infrastructure links with independent alternative consumers of domestic hydrocarbon raw materials, and others. The most probable is an integral development option for the oil and gas complex, which requires strengthening the stability and transparency of the relationship among the main organizational and economic actions on the part of the state, oil and gas companies and regulators. To implement this case scenario, we developed the interaction pattern, which will allow outlining the core activities for transition of the Russian oil and gas sector to a new development paradigm during world energy sector decarbonization under the influence of restrictive measures.
1
An interaction framework is developed to identify core actions for transitioning Russia’s oil and gas sector toward a new development paradigm.
2
Proposed crisis-response scenarios include expanding domestic hydrocarbon consumption and establishing logistics and infrastructure links with independent alternative consumers.
3
Russia’s oil and gas sector must simultaneously address greenhouse-gas reduction requirements and extensive international sanctions reshaping energy markets.
4
The most probable pathway is an integrated development scenario emphasizing stronger stability and transparency among government, companies, and regulators.
5
The study stages the industry’s recent development according to successive international restrictions and domestic economic adaptation needs.

the Russian oil and gas industry (oil and gas companies and the domestic oil and gas complex)

development scenarios and strategic guidelines for the Russian oil and gas industry under international economic sanctions and energy-sector decarbonization, including carbon-footprint reduction and crisis resilience

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2022-09-29
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Alexandra A. Saitova
Alexander Ilyinsky
Alexey Fadeev
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