The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics
White Paper CosmoVerse: решение наблюдательных противоречий в космологии с учётом систематик и фундаментальной физики
2025-06-20
SCID: 54.1/y7z7m3jz
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Hubble tensioncosmological tensionsearly- and late-Universe probesnovel data analysis methodssystematics in cosmological probes
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Abstract (AI)
The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. These new methods will become increasingly important in the coming years as the volume of survey data continues to increase, and as the degeneracy between predictions of different physical models grows. There are several perspectives on the divergences between the values of cosmological parameters, such as the model-independent probes in the late Universe and model-dependent measurements in the early Universe, which we cover at length. The White Paper closes with a number of recommendations for the community to focus on for the upcoming decade of observational cosmology, statistical data analysis, and fundamental physics developments. Download: Download high-res image (270KB) Download: Download full-size image
Key Findings
1
An array of promising beyond-standard-model physical scenarios could be observable in upcoming surveys and should be a focus for investigation.
2
Current standard cosmological model (ΛCDM + inflation + GR) fits many observations but faces emerging observational tensions between different probes.
3
Divergences in core cosmological parameter measurements exist with varying statistical confidence and may reflect systematics or new physics beyond the standard model.
4
Novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods are needed to distinguish degenerate model predictions as survey data volumes grow.
5
Systematics in measurements and probes are identified as partial possible explanations, motivating detailed review and mitigation across principal cosmological probes.
Research Object
Cosmological observations and surveys used to measure core cosmological parameters
Research Subject
Discrepancies/tensions in measured cosmological parameters and their origins, including observational systematics and potential new fundamental physics, plus methods to diagnose and resolve them
Publication Details
Publication Date
2025-06-20
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