Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Пространственные, временные и демографические закономерности распространённости употребления табака для курения и обусловленного им бремени болезней в 204 странах и территориях в 1990–2019 годах: систематический анализ в рамках исследования «Глобальное бремя болезней, травм и факторов риска — 2019»
2021-05-27
SCID: 54.1/ydzxpkye
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Bayesian meta-regressionGlobal Burden of Disease Studydisability-adjusted life-yearsdisease burdensmoking tobacco use
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Abstract (AI)
BACKGROUND: Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. INTERPRETATION: In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Key Findings
1
Despite declining prevalence, population growth increased the total number of smokers from 0.99 billion in 1990 to 1.14 billion in 2019.
2
In 2019, 1.14 billion people were current smokers and consumed 7.41 trillion cigarette-equivalents of tobacco globally.
3
Smoking caused 7.69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years globally in 2019, remaining the leading risk factor for male deaths; 86.9% of attributable deaths occurred among current smokers.
4
Smoking prevalence declined significantly among people aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019, by 27.5% among males and 37.7% among females.
5
The study estimated smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden by age and sex across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.
6
Without effective intervention, the annual global burden of smoking-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years is expected to increase over coming decades.
Research Object
Prevalence of smoking tobacco use and its attributable disease burden across 204 countries and territories (1990–2019)
Research Subject
Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in smoking prevalence and attributable mortality and disability-adjusted life-years
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2021-05-27
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