Influencing climate change adaptation in authoritarian states: a deliberative systems analysis in Vietnam

Involving those most affected by climate change in adaptation governance is crucial for procedural justice, legitimacy, and effectiveness. Empirical evidence indicates that democracies tend to perform better on climate change than authoritarian states. However, many highly climate-vulnerable countries lack key hallmarks of democracy, such as free and fair elections, while transitions to electoral democracy are hard to predict and difficult to foster. This article applies deliberative systems analysis to support a more nuanced understanding of climate politics and the diverse ways implicated groups influence decision-making in authoritarian states. Drawing on interviews with government officials, civil society, and international development practitioners involved in adaptation in Vietnam, three forms of influence are identified: coercive, persuasive, and deliberative. Despite hierarchical structures, the research reveals distinct dynamics of deliberative influence and reflects on the implications for non-governmental and international organizations seeking to use climate finance to support inclusive and accountable adaptation in climate-vulnerable countries.