Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Безопасные и справедливые границы земной системы
Fabrice DeClerck, Johan Rockström, W. de Vries, Xuemei Bai, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Dahe Qin, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E. Bunn, Ben Stewart‐Koster, Pamela Green, David I. Armstrong McKay, Jesse F. Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Timothy M. Lenton, Juan Rocha, Kristie L. Ebi, Peter H. Verburg, Marten Scheffer, David Obura, Cunde Xiao, Diana Liverman, Nebojša Nakićenović, Norichika Kanie, Joyeeta Gupta, Elena M. Bennett, Steven J. Lade, Stefan Bringezu, Daniel Ospina, Noelia Zafra‐Calvo, Chi Xu, Christopher E. Ndehedehe, Wendy Broadgate, Xin Zhang, Caroline Zimm, Thejna Tharammal, Crelis Rammelt, Lena Schulte‐Uebbing, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Daniel Ciobanu, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Awaz Mohamed, Klaudia Prodani, Joeri Scholtens, Lei Huang, Lisa Jacobson, Simona Pedde, Xinwu Xu
2023-05-31

Earth system boundariesEarth system resilienceclimate and aerosol loadingglobal commonssafe and just boundaries
Abstract The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked 1–3 , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently 4,5 . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice) 4 . The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
1
Justice considerations constrain integrated boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading.
2
Safe boundaries maintain Earth system resilience and stability, whereas just boundaries minimize human exposure to significant harm from Earth system change.
3
Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just boundaries, plus at least two regional boundaries across more than half of global land area, are already exceeded.
4
The integrated safe and just boundary is determined by whichever is stricter: the safe boundary or the justice-based boundary.
5
The study quantifies safe and just Earth system boundaries for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales.

Global and subglobal Earth system boundaries for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols

Quantification and integration of safe and just Earth system boundaries based on Earth system resilience, stability, and human exposure to significant harm

Publication Details
Publication Date
2023-05-31
Journal
Publisher
ISSN
Cited by
1371
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Author Information
Authors
Fabrice DeClerck
Johan Rockström
W. de Vries
Xuemei Bai
Detlef P. van Vuuren
Dahe Qin
Govindasamy Bala
Stuart E. Bunn
Ben Stewart‐Koster
Pamela Green
David I. Armstrong McKay
Jesse F. Abrams
Ricarda Winkelmann
Boris Sakschewski
Sina Loriani
Timothy M. Lenton
Juan Rocha
Kristie L. Ebi
Peter H. Verburg
Marten Scheffer
David Obura
Cunde Xiao
Diana Liverman
Nebojša Nakićenović
Norichika Kanie
Joyeeta Gupta
Elena M. Bennett
Steven J. Lade
Stefan Bringezu
Daniel Ospina
Noelia Zafra‐Calvo
Chi Xu
Christopher E. Ndehedehe
Wendy Broadgate
Xin Zhang
Caroline Zimm
Thejna Tharammal
Crelis Rammelt
Lena Schulte‐Uebbing
Lauren Seaby Andersen
Daniel Ciobanu
Lauren Gifford
Christopher Gordon
Syezlin Hasan
Awaz Mohamed
Klaudia Prodani
Joeri Scholtens
Lei Huang
Lisa Jacobson
Simona Pedde
Xinwu Xu
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