A systematic review and meta-analysis of motivational climate and youth sport outcomes: examining a hierarchical effects model

Objective Although the beneficial impact of motivational climate on adolescent sport participation is well-established, key questions remain unresolved regarding its hierarchical mechanism and the relative efficacy across climate types. This study applies a meta-analytic approach to reveal the deep structural mechanism of motivational climate to guide theoretical improvement and provide empirical support for optimal implementation in physical education. Methods Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, we systematically searched the Web of Science and CNKI databases for studies published between 2015 and 2025. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using JBI critical appraisal tools. A total of 177 studies, yielding 334 independent effect sizes, were included in the final analysis. A random-effects model was used to conduct the main meta-analysis, moderator analyses, and publication bias tests. Results The meta-analysis revealed a moderate overall positive association between motivational climate and youth outcomes ( r = 0.31), indicating that the social environment is a meaningful pedagogical lever for enhancing student experiences. However, the substantial heterogeneity ( I 2 = 98.45%) foreshadows that this influence is not uniform, but rather varies structurally depending on whether the outcome is psychological or behavioral. Moderator analysis provided strong evidence for a hierarchical pathway: the effect was largest on “motivation and cognition” ( r = 0.42), attenuated for “behavioral & engagement” ( r = 0.26), and was weakest for “performance and health” ( r = 0.19). While the “Others” category, comprising emerging climate models, showed a particularly strong association ( r = 0.43). The moderating effect of publication year was not statistically significant. No significant publication bias was found (Egger's test, p = 0.91). Conclusion The pattern of association between motivational climate and adolescent outcomes is consistent with a psychological-to-behavioral hierarchical model. This underscores motivational climate as a key “psychological architect” that influences longer-term behavior and performance indirectly through internal psychological states. The study highlights aspects of this motivational climate by not only demonstrating its positive influence, but also unmasking its structural pathways and offering us promising climate models with some educational significance. Systematic review registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD420251155621 , identifier: CRD420251155621.