Global Carbon Budget 2022
Глобальный углеродный бюджет 2022 года
2022-11-08
SCID: 54.1/qgsfwqge
Discuss with AI
Anthropogenic CO2 emissionsCarbon budget imbalanceGlobal carbon budgetOcean CO2 sinkTerrestrial CO2 sink
Figures from the paper
Abstract (AI)
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions ( E FOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ . For the year 2021, E FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO 2 ). Also, for 2021, G ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of −0.6 GtC yr −1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).
Key Findings
1
Global atmospheric CO2 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm in 2021; the carbon-budget imbalance was −0.6 GtC yr−1, indicating imperfect data or understanding of the carbon cycle.
2
In 2021, fossil CO2 emissions increased 5.1% from 2020, reaching 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, or 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 including cement carbonation.
3
The 2021 carbon sinks absorbed 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 in oceans and 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 on land, while atmospheric CO2 growth was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1.
4
The paper synthesizes datasets and methodologies for quantifying five major global carbon-budget components and their uncertainties.
5
Total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2021 were 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, equivalent to 40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2.
Research Object
The global carbon cycle and its five major components: fossil CO2 emissions, land-use-change emissions, atmospheric CO2, ocean CO2 uptake, and terrestrial CO2 uptake
Research Subject
Quantification of the magnitude and uncertainties of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, carbon redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, and the resulting carbon-budget imbalance
Publication Details
Publication Date
2022-11-08
Journal
Earth system science data
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
ISSN
1866-3508
Cited by
1898
Open access PDF
Access Type
Author Information
Download PDF
Subscribe to digest
References available in scid.ai7
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization2016
High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change2013
Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset2020
Global Carbon Budget 20202020
The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty2019
Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change2012
Global Carbon Budget 20172018