Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Измерение целей в области устойчивого развития, связанных со здоровьем, в 188 странах: базовый анализ на основе исследования глобальной смертности и заболеваемости 2015 года
2016-09-21
SCID: 54.1/dgnd2qsg
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Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015)Socio-demographic Index (SDI)health-related SDG indexhealth-related Sustainable Development Goalsmet need with modern contraception
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Abstract (AI)
BACKGROUND: In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS: We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS: =0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION: GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Key Findings
1
Between 2000 and 2015 the median health-related SDG index improved by 7.9 (IQR 5.0–10.4), with MDG-related indicators improving more (median 10.0) than non-MDG indicators (median 5.5).
2
Moderate improvements were observed for HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence, and childhood overweight worsened considerably.
3
Pronounced progress since 2000 occurred for met need for modern contraception, under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, and universal health coverage tracer interventions.
4
Socio-demographic drivers (income, education, fertility) are important for health improvements, but investments in these alone will not be sufficient to achieve expanded health-related SDG targets.
5
The study estimated 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015 using GBD 2015 data and rescaled each indicator 0–100.
Research Object
Health-related Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators for 188 countries (33 indicators) as estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Research Subject
Baseline measurement and performance assessment (1990–2015) of the 33 health-related SDG indicators and composite indices (health-related SDG index, MDG index, non-MDG index), including their trends, rescaled scores, and relations with the Socio-demographic Index
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2016-09-21
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