Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Ожидаемая продолжительность жизни, смертность от всех причин и смертность от конкретных причин на глобальном, региональном и национальном уровнях для 249 причин смерти, 1980–2015 гг.: систематический анализ в рамках исследования глобального бремени болезней 2015 года
Kazem Rahimi, Norberto Perico, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Ashkan Afshin, Renata Micha, Dariush Mozaffarian, Amitava Banerjee, Christopher J L Murray, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Anurag Agrawal, Rufus Akinyemi, Tomi Akinyemiju, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Khalid A Altirkawi, Johan Ärnlöv, Alaa Badawi, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lope H. Barrero, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Isabela M. Benseñor, Neeraj B. Bhala, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Boris Bikbov, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Zahid A Butt, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan Jesús Carrero, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Kelly Cercy, Fiona Charlson, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Hanne Christensen, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Aaron J. Cohen, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, José das Neves, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Robert P Dellavalle, Tim Driscoll, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Iqbal Elyazar, Holly E Erskine, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Alize J Ferrari, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Richard C. Franklin, Peter W. Gething, Giorgia Giussani, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Felix Greaves, H. C. Gugnani, Tarun Gupta, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Josep María Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon Iain Hay, Hans W. Hoek, Hung Chak Ho, Mohamed Hsaïri, Guoqing Hu, Chantal Huynh, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Vivekanand Jha, Catherine O. Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Zubair Kabir, André Karch, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Laura Kemmer, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Christian Kieling, Yun Jin Kim, Luke D. Knibbs, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Faris Lami, Sinéad Langan, Anders Larsson, James Leigh, Janni Leung, Miriam Levi, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Alan D Lopez, Paulo A. Lotufo, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Ted R. Miller, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Meghan Mooney, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Lídia Morawska, Ulrich Müeller, Kamarul Imran Musa, Mohsen Naghavi, Vinay Nangia, Bo Norrving, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Alberto Ortíz, P A Mahesh, Charles Parry, Scott B. Patten, George Patton, David M. Pereira, Konrad Pesudovs, Michael Phillips, Dietrich Plaß, Suzanne Polinder, Farshad Pourmalek, Ivo Rakovac, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Puja C Rao, Marissa B Reitsma, Serge Resnikoff, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Rajesh Sagar, Joshua A. Salomon, Itamar S Santos, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Benn Sartorius, María Inês Schmidt, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Amira Shaheen, Kenji Shibuya, Min‐Jeong Shin, Rahman Shiri, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Ken Takahashi, Jukka Takala, George D. Thurston, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Fotis Topouzis, Bach Xuan Tran, Aaron van Donkelaar, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Mitchell T. Wallin, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Charles Wolfe, Gelin Xu, Yuichiro Yano, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Stephen S Lim, Elisabete Weiderpass, Patrick John Sur, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Umar Bacha, Eduardo Bernabé, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Stan Biryukov, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, Maryam S. Farvid, João Carlos Fernandes, Mohammad Hossein Forouzanfar, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Richard F Gillum, S Harikrishnan, Masako Horino, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Fakher Rahim, Young‐Ho Khang, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Rafael Lozano, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Renata Micha, Mojde Mirarefin, Viswanathan Mohan, Mostafa Qorbani, Rajesh Kumar, Colin D. Rehm, Juan Sanabria, Andrew Thorne‐Lyman, Amanda G. Thrift, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Olalekan A. Uthman, Tissa Wijeratne, Denis Xavier, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Marie Ng, Nicholas Graetz, Semaw Ferede Abera, Tom Achoki, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Raghib Ali, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Walid Ammar, Derrick Bennett, Jed D Blore, Rajiv Chowdhury, Adrian Davis, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Eric L. Ding, Abraham D Flaxman, Atsushi Goto, Abdullatif Husseini, André Pascal Kengne, Daniel Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Gene F. Kwan, Xiaofeng Liang, Giancarlo Logroscino, George A. Mensah, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Ivy Shiue, Jasvinder A. Singh, Bryan L. Sykes, Salvador Villalpando, Rupert Bourne, Hugh R. Taylor, Richard White, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Van Charles Lansingh, Kovin Naidoo, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mehdi Yaseri, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Arnav Agarwal, Leslie T. Cooper, Niranjan Kissoon, Faı̈ez Zannad, Donald S. Shepard, Michael Brainin, Carol Brayne, Thomas J. Montine, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Norun Hjertager Krog, Joseph Jon Frostad, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Haidong Kan, C Arden Pope, Gavin Shaddick, Rita Van Dingenen, Bongani M. Mayosi, Zanfina Ademi, Christine A. Allen, Ryan M Barber, Alexandria Brown, Austin Carter, Daniel Casey, Megan Coggeshall, Daniel Dicker, Christina Fitzmaurice, Nancy Fullman, Ellen M Goldberg, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Grant Nguyen, Elaine O. Nsoesie, David M. Pigott, Christine Pinho, Logan Sandar, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A Thomas, Christopher Troeger, Joseph A. Wagner, Haidong Wang, Valentine Wanga, Leo Zoeckler, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Kossivi Agbélénko Afanvi, Ali Kiadaliri, Oluremi N Ajala, Nadia Akseer, Noore Alam, Saleh Fahed Aldhahri, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Lily Alexander, Samia Alhabib, Ala’a Alkerwi, Rajaa Mohammad Al-Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Azmeraw T. Amare, Heresh Amini, Stephen M. Amrock, Hjalte Holm Andersen, Gregory M. Anderson, Benjamin O. Anderson, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Atsede Fantahun Aregay, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Suleman Atique, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Peter S. Azzopardi, Aleksandra M. Barac, Lars Barregård, Arindam Basu, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Brent Bell, Michelle Lee Bell, Adugnaw Berhane, Balem Demtsu Betsu, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Espen Bjertness, Rohan Borschmann, Alexandra Bražinová, Jonathan C. Brown, Geoffrey Buckle, Bianca Calabria, Julio César Campuzano, David O. Carpenter, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Chioma Ezinne Chibueze, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Matthew M Coates, Samantha Colquhoun, Cyrus Cooper, Monica Cortinovis, John A. Crump, Farah Daoud, Gail Davey, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Preet K. Dhillon, Cèsar Díaz‐Torné, Leilei Duan, Manisha Dubey, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Talha Farid, Joseph R A Fitchett, Kyle J Foreman, Joseph Friedman, Thomas Fürst, Neal D. Futran, Parthasarathi Ganguly, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Teshome Gebre, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Bradford D. Gessner, Katherine B. Gibney, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Maurice Giroud, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, Elizabeth Glaser, William Godwin, Hector Gómez‐Dantés, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Carolyn Gotay, Hebe Gouda, Rahul Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Demewoz Haile, Alemayehu Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Yara A. Halasa, Jamie Hancock, Alexis J. Handal, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Pouria Heydarpour, Nobuyuki Horita, Damian G Hoy, Aung Soe Htet, Hsiang Huang, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Kaire Innos, Manami Inoue, Veena Iyer, Nader Jahanmehr, Mehdi Javanbakht, Sudha Jayaraman, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Paul N. Jensen, Tariku Jibat, Aída Jiménez-Corona, Ritul Kamal, Corine Karema, Chanté Karimkhani, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Andrew H. Kemp, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Abdur Rahman Khan, Sahil Khera, Tawfik Khoja, Dhaval Kolte, Andreas A Kudom, Ernst J. Kuipers, Michael Kutz, Aparna Lal, Hilton Y. Lam, Jennifer O. Lam, Raimundas Lunevičius, Ronan A Lyons, Mark T. Mackay, Mohammed Magdy, Abd El Razek, Marek Majdán, Wagner Marcenes, David Joel Margolis, José Martı́nez-Raga, Felix Masiye, João Massano, Stephen T. McGarvey, Brian J. McMahon, Peter A. Meaney, Alem Mehari, Fabiola Mejía‐Rodríguez, Alemayehu Mekonnen, Peter Memiah, Francis Mhimbira, Anoushka Millear, Charles Mock, Alireza Mohammadi, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Jean B. Nachega, Luigi Naldi, John Newton, Frida Ngalesoni, Quyen Le Nguyen, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Pedro R. Olivares, Majdi Osman, Erika Ota, Eun‐Kee Park, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Ángel Paternina‐Caicedo, Max Petzold, Frédéric B. Piel, Julian David Pillay, James A Platts-Mills, Richie Poulton, Anwar Rafay, Mahfuzar Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Saša Rajšić, Amany Refaat, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, María Jesús Ríos-Blancas, David Rojas‐Rueda, Ambuj Roy, Ramesh Sahathevan, Maheswar Satpathy, Miloje Savic, Monika Sawhney, Michael P Schaub, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Soraya Seedat, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sharma, Jiabin Shen, Kevin N. Sheth, Mark G. Shrime, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Abhishek Singh, Om Prakash Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Amber Sligar, Kjetil Søreide, Luciano A. Sposato, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Bruno Sunguya, Soumya Swaminathan, Cassandra Szoeke, Nikhil Tandon, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Bineyam Taye, Braden Te Ao, Bemnet Tedla, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, A. J. Thomson, Thomas Truelsen, Abera Kenay Tura, E. Murat Tuzcu, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Gregory R. Wagner, David Watkins, Scott Weichenthal, Hywel C Williams, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Sungho Won, Lijing L. Yan, Pengpeng Ye, Henock G. Yebyo, Zoubida Zaidi, Hajo Zeeb, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Zühlke, Gebre Yitayih Abyu, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Peter J. Hotez, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, João Mário Pedro, Saverio Stranges, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Margreet ten Have, Anna Roca, Robyn Lucas, Samer Alabed, Jeyaraj Pandian, David Tirschwell, Traolach Brugha, Timothy M Wolock, José Carmelo Adsuar, Deena Alasfoor, Alicia V Aleman, Robert W Aldridge, Denis Nash, Amanda J. Mason‐Jones, Rintaro Mori, F.G.R. Fowkes, Brett Kissela, Edgar P. Simard, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Heidi Jane Larson, Neal Marquez, Alemseged Aregay Gebru, Inge Huybrechts, Eyal Oren, Jun She, Aref A. Bin Abdulhak, James D. Wilkinson, Aminu K. Bello, Maia Kereselidze, Jennifer H MacLachlan, Jonathan I. Silverberg, Wanqing Chen, Seana Gall, Jae‐Hyun Park, Murray B. Stein, Gitanjali Singh, Srinivas Murthy, D. Alex Quistberg, Charles R. Newton, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Steven E. Lipshultz, Neil Pearce, Lídia Sànchez-Riera, Saeid Shahraz, Anthony D. Woolf, James Damsere-Derry, Richard A. Gosselin, Richard Matzopoulos, Paul E. Norman, Sukanta Saha, Donald H. Silberberg, David Zonies, Rana Jawad Asghar, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Stefan Ma, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Nitish Naik, Subas Neupane, Peilin Shi, Virendra Singh, Glen Mola, Rajeev Gupta, Valentina Arsić‐Arsenijević, Benjamin C Cowie, Maria C Bahit, Justin Beardsley, Ashish Bhalla, Megan A Bohensky, Dipan Bose, Valentina Colistro, Saman Fahimi, Laetitia Huiart, Guohong Jiang, Veena S. Kulkarni, Margaret L. Lind, M. Patrice Lindsay, Chakib Nejjari, Luke Nyakarahuka, John Nelson Opio, Christina Papachristou, Vinod K Paul, Murugesan Raju, Saleem M Rana, George Mugambage Ruhago, Samir Soneji, Jefferson Traebert, Ulises Trujillo, Lakshmi Vijayakumar, Linhong Wang, Solomon Woldeyohannes, John Q. Wong, Susan R. Heckbert, Peter James, Tushar Kant Joshi, Ademola Adelekan, Elena Álvarez Martín, A. Kofi Amegah, Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou, Bereket Yakob, Hao Zhang, Amiran Gamkrelidze, R. Thara, Qingyang Xiao, Alan Zian Chen, Maya Fraser, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Joe Mikesell, Naris Silpakit, Amelia VanderZanden, Daisy Maria Xavier de Abreu, A. S. Akanda, Sarah C. Darby, E. Castro, Ying Jiang, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Alicia E. B. Lawrynowicz, Wondimu Ayele Ayele Manamo, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Emmanuel A Ameh, Haileeyesus Adamu Belay, Brian J. Biroscak, Christopher D. Blosser, Jerry D. Brewer, Fiorella Cavalleri, Jorge Cerdá, Adrienne Chew, Mirriam Chibalabala, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Mercedes Colomar, Hadi Danawi, Pieter de Jager, Kadine Priscila Bender dos Santos, Edem Dossou, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Imad D A Faghmous, Jefferson Gomes Fernandes, Elisabeth Barboza França, Кетеван Гамбашидзе, Tsegaye Tsewelde Gebrehiwot, Stuart Gilmour, Henk Hilderink, Robert S. Hogg, Maung Maung Than Htike, Cheng Huang, Grace Huynh, Troy Jacobs, Surya Kant, Dimitris Karletsos, Marzieh Katibeh, Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda, Dennis Odai Laryea, Asma Latif, Yongmei Li, Patrick Y Liu, Loon-Tzian Lo, Vasco Machado, Wondimu Ayele, John Mandisarisa, Srikanth Mangalam, Chabila C Mapoma, Gerard R. Martin, Awoke Misganaw, Pablo H. Montero, Katherine A. Morgan, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Murthy, Gabriele Nagel, Jean de Dieu Ngirabega, Marika Nomura, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Raziye Özdemir, Amanda Pain, Puspa Raj Pant, Ljiljana Pejin Stokic, Светлана Михайловна Попова, Justice Quame‐Amaglo, Zhale Rajavi, Sowmya R. Rao, Stefano Ricci, Bayard Roberts, Nawal K Roy, Muhammad Muhammad Saleh, Marina Shakh-Nazarova, Ziyan Shen, Balakrishna P Shetty, Worku Tefera, Taavi Tillmann, Jeffrey Allen Towbin, Uche S Uchendu, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Ramesh Vidavalur, Ayalnesh Zemene Yalew, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Gerald Yonga, Shicheng Yu, Diego E. Zavala, Berihun M. Zeleke, Ibrahim A Khalil, Stein Emil Vollset, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Jürgen Rehm, Walid Ammar, Rana Jawad Asghar, David L Tirschwell, Christina Papachristou, Laëtitia Huiart, Mercedes Colomar
2016-10-01
SCID:  54.1/seksdqm8 Discuss with AI
Cause of Death Ensemble ModelGlobal Burden of Disease StudySocio-demographic Indexcause-specific mortalitylife expectancy
Abstract (AI)
BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Key Findings
1
Eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD mortality cause list.
2
GBD 2015 assessed all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes across 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.
3
Novel analyses evaluated mortality patterns against the Socio-demographic Index, separated effects of population growth and ageing from epidemiological change, and attributed life-expectancy changes to causes of death.
4
The analytical framework improved estimation of child and adult mortality, uncertainty, under-five mortality synthesis, and sibling-history data processing.
5
The study expanded its mortality evidence base to 14,294 geography-year datapoints from vital registration, surveys, and censuses.
Research Object

Global, regional, and national mortality and life expectancy data for 195 countries (1980–2015) used in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Research Subject

Geographic, temporal, age-, and sex-specific mortality levels and trends for 249 causes of death, including their relationships with sociodemographic development and contributions to changes in life expectancy

Publication Details
Publication Date
2016-10-01
Journal
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Authors
Kazem Rahimi
Norberto Perico
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Ashkan Afshin
Renata Micha
Dariush Mozaffarian
Amitava Banerjee
Christopher J L Murray
Cristiana Abbafati
Kaja Abbas
Foad Abd-Allah
Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad
Anurag Agrawal
Rufus Akinyemi
Tomi Akinyemiju
Ziyad Al‐Aly
Khurshid Alam
François Alla
Peter Allebeck
Khalid A Altirkawi
Johan Ärnlöv
Alaa Badawi
Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Lope H. Barrero
Sanjay Basu
Neeraj Bedi
Ettore Beghi
Isabela M. Benseñor
Neeraj B. Bhala
Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta
Boris Bikbov
Nicholas J. K. Breitborde
Hermann Brenner
Zahid A Butt
Ismael Campos‐Nonato
Rosario Cárdenas
Juan Jesús Carrero
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
Kelly Cercy
Fiona Charlson
Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir
Jee-Young Jasmine Choi
Hanne Christensen
Liliana G Ciobanu
Massimo Círillo
Aaron J. Cohen
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
Paul I. Dargan
José das Neves
Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu
Diego De Leo
Louisa Degenhardt
Robert P Dellavalle
Tim Driscoll
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
Iqbal Elyazar
Holly E Erskine
Alireza Esteghamati
Kara Estep
André Faro
Farshad Farzadfar
Valery L. Feigin
Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Alize J Ferrari
Florian Fischer
Nataliya A Foigt
Richard C. Franklin
Peter W. Gething
Giorgia Giussani
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Felix Greaves
H. C. Gugnani
Tarun Gupta
Nima Hafezi‐Nejad
Randah R Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
Graeme J. Hankey
Josep María Haro
Rasmus Havmoeller
Simon Iain Hay
Hans W. Hoek
Hung Chak Ho
Mohamed Hsaïri
Guoqing Hu
Chantal Huynh
Kathryn H. Jacobsen
Mihajlo Jakovljević
Panniyammakal Jeemon
Vivekanand Jha
Catherine O. Johnson
Jost B. Jonas
Zubair Kabir
André Karch
Peter Njenga Keiyoro
Laura Kemmer
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
Christian Kieling
Yun Jin Kim
Luke D. Knibbs
Ann Kristin Knudsen
Jacek A Kopec
Parvaiz A Koul
Ai Koyanagi
Barthélémy Kuate Defo
G Anil Kumar
Ratilal Lalloo
Tea Lallukka
Faris Lami
Sinéad Langan
Anders Larsson
James Leigh
Janni Leung
Miriam Levi
Shiwei Liu
Yang Liu
Alan D Lopez
Paulo A. Lotufo
Azeem Majeed
Reza Malekzadeh
John J. McGrath
Martin McKee
Man Mohan Mehndiratta
Ziad A. Memish
Walter Mendoza
Atte Meretoja
Tuomo J Meretoja
Ted R. Miller
Shafiu Mohammed
Ali H. Mokdad
Lorenzo Monasta
Meghan Mooney
Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh
Lídia Morawska
Ulrich Müeller
Kamarul Imran Musa
Mohsen Naghavi
Vinay Nangia
Bo Norrving
Felix Akpojene Ogbo
Bolajoko O. Olusanya
Jacob Olusegun Olusanya
Alberto Ortíz
P A Mahesh
Charles Parry
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