Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Численность населения и рождаемость по возрасту и полу в 195 странах и территориях, 1950–2017 гг.: систематический анализ в рамках исследования глобального бремени болезней 2017 года
Norberto Perico, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Ashkan Afshin, Giuseppe Grosso, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Christopher J L Murray, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Gina Agarwal, Mehdi Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Rufus Akinyemi, Tomi Akinyemiju, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Jordi Alonso, Khalid A Altirkawi, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Johan Ärnlöv, Marcel Ausloos, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Alaa Badawi, Maciej Banach, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lope H. Barrero, Bernhard T. Baune, Ettore Beghi, Isabela M. Benseñor, Adam E. Berman, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Cristina Bosetti, Soufiane Boufous, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle B. Britton, Zahid A Butt, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan Jesús Carrero, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Ester Cerin, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Flavia Cicuttini, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Nikolaos Dervenis, Shirin Djalalinia, Клара Докова, Tim Driscoll, André Rodrigues Durães, David Edvardsson, Iqbal Elyazar, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Mohammad Fareed, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Luísa Sório Flor, Nataliya A Foigt, Takeshi Fukumoto, Emmanuela Gakidou, Silvano Gallus, Peter W. Gething, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Hesam Ghiasvand, Paramjit Gill, Giorgia Giussani, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C. Goulart, H. C. Gugnani, Yuming Guo, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep María Haro, Hadi Hassankhani, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Claudiu Herţeliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Praveen Hoogar, Hung Chak Ho, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsaïri, Guoqing Hu, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Spencer L James, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S. Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, André Karch, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Mona M Khater, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Sonali Kochhar, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Ratilal Lalloo, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Miriam Levi, Shanshan Li, Lee‐Ling Lim, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Abdullah Al Mamun, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Manu Raj Mathur, Pallab K Maulik, John J. McGrath, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Kala M. Mehta, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Shane D. Morrison, Abbas Mosapour, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Ulrich Müeller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kamarul Imran Musa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Gabriele Nagel, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Molly R Nixon, Shuhei Nomura, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Christopher M Odell, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, Alberto Ortíz, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, George Patton, Emmanuel Peprah, David M. Pereira, Konrad Pesudovs, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Maarten J. Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Amir Radfar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Fatemeh Rajati, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Robert C. Reiner, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Nicholas L S Roberts, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Enrico Rubagotti, Perminder S. Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Yahya Safari, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Nasir Salam, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Joshua A. Salomon, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Sonia Saxena, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Amira Shaheen, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Kenji Shibuya, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Soraya Siabani, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir, João Pedro Silva, Ambrish Singh, Moslem Soofi, Joan B. Soriano, Ireneous N Soyiri, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Caitlyn Steiner, Mark A. Stokes, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Gerhard Sulo, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Anna E Torre, Bach Xuan Tran, Lorainne Tudor Car, Pascual Valdéz, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Yasir Waheed, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Charles Wolfe, Gelin Xu, Yuichiro Yano, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Xiu‐Ju Zhao, Maigeng Zhou, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Stephen S Lim, Leila Jahangiry, Elisabete Weiderpass, Akram Pourshams, Patrick John Sur, Kairsten Fay, Leslie Cornaby, Joseph S Salama, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Abebe Zegeye, Mohsen Afarideh, Sutapa Agrawal, Hamid Badali, Eduardo Bernabé, Meaza Girma Degefa, Sadaf Esteghamati, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, Maryam S. Farvid, Morsaleh Ganji, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Fakher Rahim, Young‐Ho Khang, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Rafael Lozano, Winfried März, Hossein Poustchi, Mostafa Qorbani, Rajesh Kumar, Christian Razo-García, Juan Sanabria, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Olalekan A. Uthman, Tissa Wijeratne, Victor Aboyans, Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh, Raghib Ali, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Derrick Bennett, Jung‐Chen Chang, Rajiv Chowdhury, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Eric L. Ding, Simerjot K Jassal, André Pascal Kengne, Daniel Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Li Y, Xiaofeng Liang, George A. Mensah, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Ivy Shiue, Bryan L. Sykes, Hideaki Toyoshima, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Sofia Androudi, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, John J. Huang, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Van Charles Lansingh, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Mehdi Yaseri, Shouling Wu, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Leslie T. Cooper, Khanh Bao Tran, Michael Brainin, Olatunde Aremu, Mark Strong, Elke Schäeffner, Daniel Dicker, Nancy Fullman, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Grant Nguyen, David M. Pigott, Leo Zoeckler, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Ala’a Alkerwi, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Azmeraw T. Amare, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Reza Assadi, Suleman Atique, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Peter Azzopardi, Arindam Basu, Michelle L. Bell, Adugnaw Berhane, Alexandra Bražinová, Julio César Campuzano, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Cyrus Cooper, Monica Cortinovis, Kebede Deribe, Don C. Des Jarlais, Manisha Dubey, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Kyle J Foreman, Thomas Fürst, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Teshome Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Hector Gómez‐Dantés, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Alexis J. Handal, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Nader Jahanmehr, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Corine Karema, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Andre Keren, Michael Kutz, Hilton Y. Lam, Juan Liang, Raimundas Lunevičius, Mark T. Mackay, Marek Majdán, Wagner Marcenes, Felix Masiye, Peter Memiah, Jean B. Nachega, Luigi Naldi, Frida Ngalesoni, Pedro R. Olivares, Erika Ota, Eun‐Kee Park, Max Petzold, Julian David Pillay, Anwar Rafay, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Saša Rajšić, Usha Ram, María Jesús Ríos-Blancas, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Soraya Seedat, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sharma, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Karen Sliwa, Bruno Sunguya, Cassandra Szoeke, Nikhil Tandon, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, A. J. Thomson, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Pengpeng Ye, Zoubida Zaidi, Sanjay Zodpey, Hossein Ansari, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Kairat Davletov, Abdullah T Khoja, Kristopher J Krohn, Mohsen Mazidi, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Matthew Cunningham, Judd L. Walson, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Behzad Heibati, Jemal Abdela, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Mina G Adib, Yohanes Ayele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Belete Biadgo, Huyen Phuc, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tesfaye Kassa, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Getnet Mengistu, Long Hoang Nguyen, Tinuke O Olagunju, Hosein Safari, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Mehdi Sharif, Miguel Tortajada‐Girbés, Amanuel Tsegay, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Ebrahim M Yimer, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Sait Mentes Birlik, Abdulaal Chitheer, Vladimir Hachinski, Anshul Kastor, Misgan Legesse Liben, LG Mantovani, Suresh Mehata, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Raad Shakir, José Carmelo Adsuar, Alicia V Aleman, Animut Alebel, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Roy Burstein, Marcel Yotebieng, Amanda J. Mason‐Jones, Rintaro Mori, Margaret Kosek, Tasha Murphy, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Hedayat Abbastabar, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Masoud Behzadifar, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Meghnath Dhimal, Ricardo Santiago Gomez, Ravi Mehrotra, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Adrian Pană, Mario Šekerija, Nihal Thomas, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Vesna Zadnik, Mahfuzar Rahman, Jun She, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Abdu A. Adamu, Oladimeji Adebayo, Kareha M Agesa, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Aminu K. Bello, Gregory J Bertolacci, Oliver J. Brady, Reinhard Busse, Ken Lee Chin, Sara Conti, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Christopher S. Crowe, Carla Fornari, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Srinivas Goli, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Ayman Grada, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Nathaniel J Henry, Michael K. Hole, Maia Kereselidze, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Young‐Eun Kim, Tufa Kolola, Manasi Kumar, Zohra S Lassi, Fabiana Madotto, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Noushin Mohammadifard, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Abhijit Pakhare, Alireza Rafiei, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Inbal Salz, Dillon O Sylte, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Santosh Varughese, Sojib Bin Zaman, PN Sylaja, Mohamed Hegazy, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Kia Vosoughi, Maryam Mohammadi‐Khanaposhtani, Solomón Mequanente Abay, Nicole Davis Weaver, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Smita Pakhalé, Sharvari Shukla, Narinder Singh, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Charles R. Newton, Guilherme V. Polanczyk, Degu Abate, Nooshin Abbasi, Manfred Accrombessi, Pawan Acharya, Sargis A. Aghayan, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Nahla Anber, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Rakesh Ayer, Arefeh Babazadeh, Meysam Behzadifar, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Robert S. Bernstein, Mircea Beuran, Suraj Bhattarai, Nigus Bililign, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Jorge Cano, Hsing‐Yi Chang, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Rafael Moreira Claro, Daniel Collado‐Mateo, Megan Costa, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Selina Deiparine, Getenet Dessie, David Teye Doku, Kerrie Doyle, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Ziad El‐Khatib, Ahmadali Enayati, Hamed Fakhim, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Netsanet Fentahun, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Mamata Ghimire, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Tiffany K Gill, Prakash C. Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Mehedi Hasan, Akbar Hedayatizadeh‐Omran, Andualem Henok, Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Chad Ikeda, Suresh Jungari, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Manoochehr Karami, Dessalegn H Kassa, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Alireza Khajavi, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Daniel N Kiirithio, Sheetal D Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Arman Latifi, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Reza Majdzadeh, Ana-Laura Manda, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Tivani P. Mashamba-Thompson, Varshil Mehta, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Mehdi Moradinazar, Marilita M. Moschos, Achenef Asmamaw Muche, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Kate Muller, Jonah Musa, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Nahid Neamati, Subas Neupane, Mehdi Noroozi, Hamid Reza Nouri, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammad Reza Nowroozi, Peter S. Nyasulu, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Shanti Patel, Snehal T Patil, Ajay Patle, Vishnupriya Rao Paturi, Swayam Prakash, Caroline Purcell, Manorama Purwar, Prabhat Ranjan, Satar Rezaei, Ali Rostami, Roya Safari‐Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Haniye Sadat Sajadi, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Bruno Piassi Sâo José, Mayank Sardana, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Arundhati R Sawant, Hosein Shabaninejad, Azadeh Shafieesabet, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Heidar Sharafi, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Peilin Shi, Farhad Shokraneh, Si Si, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Narayana Sarma V. Singam, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Soheila Sobhani, Michelle Subart, Ipsita Sutradhar, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, T. Tekalign, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin, Binyam Tilahun, Quyen G. To, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Muhammad Usman, Afsane Vaezi, Santos Villafaina, Isidora S Vujcic, Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew, Justyna Widecka, Grant M. A. Wyper, Tomohide Yamada, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Alex Yeshaneh, Engida Yisma, Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Glen Mola, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Xiaohong Li, Ayuk Betrand Tambe, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Mate Car, Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo, Ehimario Igumbor, Zemenu Yohannes Kassa, Habibolah Khazaie, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Okechukwu S. Ogah, Cesar Reis, Shahab Rezaeian, Jarnail Singh Thakur, Seifu Kebede, Jun Zhu, Alireza Abdi, Alireza Khatony, Rajeev Gupta, Kedir Teji Roba, Nu Thi Truong, Farid Najafi, Jingwen Guo, Quique Bassat, Yanping Wang, William A. Petri, Berrak Bora Başara, Sanjay Krishnaswami, George Mugambage Ruhago, Selen Begüm Uzun, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Payman Salamati, Krishna K Aryal, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Rizwan Kalani, Reginald Quansah, Thomas Hsiao, Julian Chalek, Maxwell Pierce, Nadia Akseer, Busisiwe P. Ncama, Teshome Abuka Abebo, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Pushpendra Kumar, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Naris Silpakit, Daisy Maria Xavier de Abreu, A. S. Akanda, Saeed Mehrzadi, Charlton Callender, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Sarah E. Ray, Molla Abebe, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Jerry D. Brewer, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Dennis Odai Laryea, Srikanth Mangalam, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Murthy, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Sayem Ahmed, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Paulami Naik, Elena A. Varavikova, Omar Abdel‐Rahman, Abla Mehio Sibai, Md. Shafiur Rahman, Avula Laxmaiah, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Madhu Sudhan Atteraya, Haley Comfort, John E Fuller, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Huda Basaleem, Narayan Prasad, Faris Hasan Lami, Andrea B Feigl, Archie Bleyer, Vladimir I. Starodubov, Justin J. Lang, Ghulam Mustafa, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Sanjay Mehendale, Charles Birungi, Mir Sohail Fazeli, Ibrahim A Khalil, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Anselm Okoro, Basant Kumar Panda, Jayendra Sharma, Stein Emil Vollset, Xueying Zhang, Leo G Stewart, Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Ayele Geleto Bali, Srikanth Tripathy, Nicholas Arian, Walid Ammar, Paul E. Kilgore, Behzad Karami Matin, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Seyed M Karimi, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mohammed Akibu, Saba Abraham Belay, Hailemichael Bizuneh, Alanur Çavlin, Chuanhua Yu, Tamer H. Farag, Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes, Ezra Belay, Tuhin Biswas, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Aditya Prasad Dash, Balem Demtsu, Reza Esmaeili, Samuel Finegold, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Yihua He, Moti Tolera Jalu, Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Dadi Marami, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Parvaneh Mirabi, Moslem Mohammadi, Hadi Parsian, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Belay Tessema, Gaurang Vaidya, Habtamu Abera Areri, Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay, María Magdalena Constantin, Kate Dolan, Fariba Feizy, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw, Oluwaseyi O. Isehunwa, U Kapil, Tripti Khanna, Jun Yup Kim, Sanjay Kinra, Fekede Asefa Kumsa, Samson Leta, Crispin Mabika, Manzoor Ahmad Malik, Wondimu Ayele Manamo, Shakhnazarova Marina, Yodé Miangotar, Mahmoudreza Moradi, Haseeb Nawaz, Achyut Raj Pandey, Deepak Paudel, Yogesh Sabde, Kathryn Schelonka, Aberash Abay Tassew, Nega Yimer Tawye, Katarzyna Widecka, Mulugeta Molla Zeleke, Nasrin Abdoli, Ali Almasi, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Gilles Bergeron, Petra Čukelj, Tizta Tilahun Degfie, Girmaye Dinsa, Ama Pokuaa Fenny, Gregory M Garcia, Ricard Genova-Maleras, Rahul Gupta, Meimanat Hosseini‐Chavoshi, Asnake Ararsa Irenso, Sudhir Jain, Zahra Khazaeipour, Sonia Lanksy, James B. Lee, Tarek Abd Elaziz Mahmood, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Julio Montañez, Alypio Nyandwi, Brenda Achieng Otieno, Marcel Moraes Pedroso, Sundeep Santosh Salvi, Satish Saroshe
2018-11-01
SCID: 54.1/j39kv3xq
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Global Burden of Disease Study 2017age-specific fertility ratesage-specific mortalitydemographic balancing equationspatiotemporal Gaussian process regression
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Abstract (AI)
BACKGROUND: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Key Findings
1
Age-specific fertility rates were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression from extensive vital registration, survey, and census data, then used to derive total fertility rates.
2
Age-specific mortality inputs were standardized using Global Burden of Disease 2017 estimates, while census and registry populations were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting.
3
Due to sparse observations, fertility at ages 10–14 and 50–54 years was estimated from fertility data for women aged 15–19 and 45–49 years using linear regression.
4
Estimates were generated using transparent, standardized, and replicable methods based on the demographic balancing equation incorporating fertility, mortality, population, and migration.
5
The study provides population and fertility estimates by single year of age, sex, and calendar year for 195 countries and territories from 1950 to 2017.
Research Object
Population and fertility by single year of age and sex in 195 countries and territories from 1950 to 2017
Research Subject
Age-specific fertility, total fertility, and population levels and trends estimated using standardized demographic balancing methods
Publication Details
Publication Date
2018-11-01
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Author Information
Authors
Norberto Perico
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Ashkan Afshin
Giuseppe Grosso
Amirhossein Sahebkar
Christopher J L Murray
Ahmed Abdelalim
Ibrahim Abdollahpour
Laith J. Abu‐Raddad
Victor Adekanmbi
Olatunji Adetokunboh
Gina Agarwal
Mehdi Ahmadi
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Rufus Akinyemi
Tomi Akinyemiju
Fares Alahdab
Ziyad Al‐Aly
Khurshid Alam
Syed Mohamed Aljunid
François Alla
Peter Allebeck
Jordi Alonso
Khalid A Altirkawi
Cătălina Liliana Andrei
Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
Johan Ärnlöv
Marcel Ausloos
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Alaa Badawi
Maciej Banach
Suzanne Barker‐Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Lope H. Barrero
Bernhard T. Baune
Ettore Beghi
Isabela M. Benseñor
Adam E. Berman
Zulfiqar A Bhutta
Ali Bijani
Boris Bikbov
Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed
Cristina Bosetti
Soufiane Boufous
Nicholas J. K. Breitborde
Hermann Brenner
Paul Svitil Briant
Gabrielle B. Britton
Zahid A Butt
Ismael Campos‐Nonato
Rosario Cárdenas
Juan Jesús Carrero
Félix Carvalho
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
Franz Castro
Ester Cerin
Jee-Young Jasmine Choi
Flavia Cicuttini
Liliana G Ciobanu
Massimo Círillo
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
Paul I. Dargan
Ahmad Daryani
Rajat Das Gupta
José das Neves
Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu
Diego De Leo
Louisa Degenhardt
Gebre Teklemariam Demoz
Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez
Nikolaos Dervenis
Shirin Djalalinia
Клара Докова
Tim Driscoll
André Rodrigues Durães
David Edvardsson
Iqbal Elyazar
Sharareh Eskandarieh
Alireza Esteghamati
Kara Estep
Mohammad Fareed
André Faro
Farshad Farzadfar
Valery L. Feigin
Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Eduarda Fernandes
Irina Filip
Florian Fischer
Luísa Sório Flor
Nataliya A Foigt
Takeshi Fukumoto
Emmanuela Gakidou
Silvano Gallus
Peter W. Gething
Keyghobad Ghadiri
Hesam Ghiasvand
Paramjit Gill
Giorgia Giussani
E. V. Gnedovskaya
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Alessandra C. Goulart
H. C. Gugnani
Yuming Guo
Nima Hafezi‐Nejad
Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian
Arya Haj‐Mirzaian
Randah R Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
Graeme J. Hankey
Hamidreza Haririan
Josep María Haro
Hadi Hassankhani
Rasmus Havmoeller
Simon I Hay
Claudiu Herţeliu
Fatemeh Heydarpour
Praveen Hoogar
Hung Chak Ho
Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
Mihaela Hostiuc
Sorin Hostiuc
Mohamed Hsaïri
Guoqing Hu
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
Usman Iqbal
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
Mihajlo Jakovljević
Spencer L James
Panniyammakal Jeemon
Ravi Prakash Jha
Vivekanand Jha
John S. Ji
Jost B. Jonas
Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak
Mikk Jürisson
Zubair Kabir
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
André Karch
Getachew Mullu Kassa
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
Ali Kazemi Karyani
Peter Njenga Keiyoro
Nauman Khalid
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
Mona M Khater
Yun Jin Kim
Ruth W Kimokoti
Adnan Kısa
Mika Kivimäki
Sonali Kochhar
Jacek A Kopec
Parvaiz A Koul
Ai Koyanagi
Kewal Krishan
Barthélémy Kuate Defo
G Anil Kumar
Ratilal Lalloo
Jeffrey V. Lazarus
Paul H. Lee
James Leigh
Miriam Levi
Shanshan Li
Lee‐Ling Lim
Shai Linn
Shiwei Liu
Alan D Lopez
Stefan Lorkowski
Paulo A. Lotufo
Azeem Majeed
Reza Malekzadeh
Abdullah Al Mamun
Mohammad Alì Mansournia
Joemer C Maravilla
Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo
Manu Raj Mathur
Pallab K Maulik
John J. McGrath
Man Mohan Mehndiratta
Kala M. Mehta
Ziad A. Memish
Walter Mendoza
Seid Tiku Mereta
Atte Meretoja
Tuomo J Meretoja
Tomislav Meštrović
Bartosz Miazgowski
Tomasz Miazgowski
Ted R. Miller
GK Mini
Andreea Mirică
Erkin М Мirrakhimov
Babak Moazen
Shafiu Mohammed
Ali H. Mokdad
Mariam Molokhia
Lorenzo Monasta
Ghobad Moradi
Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh
Paula Moraga
Joana Morgado-da-Costa
Shane D. Morrison
Abbas Mosapour
Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
Ulrich Müeller
Satinath Mukhopadhyay
Kamarul Imran Musa
Muthupandian Saravanan
Gabriele Nagel
Vinay Nangia
Jobert Richie Nansseu
Ionuţ Negoi
Josephine W Ngunjiri
Molly R Nixon
Shuhei Nomura
Jean Jacques Noubiap
Christopher M Odell
Felix Akpojene Ogbo
In‐Hwan Oh
Andrew T Olagunju
Bolajoko O. Olusanya
Jacob Olusegun Olusanya
Sok King Ong
Alberto Ortíz
Stanislav S Otstavnov
Mayowa Owolabi
P A Mahesh
Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas
George Patton
Emmanuel Peprah
David M. Pereira
Konrad Pesudovs
Meghdad Pirsaheb
Maarten J. Postma
Farshad Pourmalek
Amir Radfar
Muhammad Aziz Rahman
Fatemeh Rajati
Chhabi Lal Ranabhat
David Laith Rawaf
Salman Rawaf
Robert C. Reiner
André M. N. Renzaho
Serge Resnikoff
Seyed Mohammad Riahi
Nicholas L S Roberts
Leonardo Roever
Luca Ronfani
Gholamreza Roshandel
Enrico Rubagotti
Perminder S. Sachdev
Basema Saddik
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam
Yahya Safari
Sare Safi
Saeid Safiri
Rajesh Sagar
Nasir Salam
Hamideh Salimzadeh
Joshua A. Salomon
Evanson Zondani Sambala
Abdallah M Samy
Itamar S Santos
Milena M Santric-Milicevic
Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez
Nizal Sarrafzadegan
Benn Sartorius
Brijesh Sathian
Thirunavukkarasu Sathish
Sonia Saxena
David C. Schwebel
Falk Schwendicke
Sadaf G Sepanlou
Amira Shaheen
Mehran Shams-Beyranvand
Morteza Shamsizadeh
Kiomars Sharafi
Aziz Sheikh
Kenji Shibuya
Mika Shigematsu
Rahman Shiri
Reza Shirkoohi
Soraya Siabani
Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir
Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir
João Pedro Silva
Ambrish Singh
Moslem Soofi
Joan B. Soriano
Ireneous N Soyiri
Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy
Vinay Srinivasan
Caitlyn Steiner
Mark A. Stokes
Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan
Gerhard Sulo
Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos
Karen M. Tabb
Nuno Taveira
Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi
Mohamad‐Hani Temsah
Marcello Tonelli
Roman Topór-Mądry
Anna E Torre
Bach Xuan Tran
Lorainne Tudor Car
Pascual Valdéz
Tommi Vasankari
Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian
Francesco Saverio Violante
Vasily Vlassov
Theo Vos
Yasir Waheed
Yuan‐Pang Wang
Robert G Weintraub
Andrea Werdecker
Ronny Westerman
Harvey Whiteford
Charles Wolfe
Gelin Xu
Yuichiro Yano
Paul Yip
Naohiro Yonemoto
Mustafa Z Younis
Xiu‐Ju Zhao
Maigeng Zhou
Stephanie R M Zimsen
Stephen S Lim
Leila Jahangiry
Elisabete Weiderpass
Akram Pourshams
Patrick John Sur
Kairsten Fay
Leslie Cornaby
Joseph S Salama
Kalkidan Hassen Abate
Abebe Zegeye
Mohsen Afarideh
Sutapa Agrawal
Hamid Badali
Eduardo Bernabé
Meaza Girma Degefa
Sadaf Esteghamati
Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha
Maryam S. Farvid
Morsaleh Ganji
Johanna M. Geleijnse
Hamid Yimam Hassen
Amir Kasaeian
Yousef Khader
Fakher Rahim
Young‐Ho Khang
Yoshihiro Kokubo
Rafael Lozano
Winfried März
Hossein Poustchi
Mostafa Qorbani
Rajesh Kumar
Christian Razo-García
Juan Sanabria
Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja
Irfan Ullah
Olalekan A. Uthman
Tissa Wijeratne
Victor Aboyans
Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh
Raghib Ali
Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán
Derrick Bennett
Jung‐Chen Chang
Rajiv Chowdhury
Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne
Eric L. Ding
Simerjot K Jassal
André Pascal Kengne
Daniel Kim
Soewarta Kosen
Li Y
Xiaofeng Liang
George A. Mensah
Mohsen Naghavi
Aliya Naheed
Muhammad Imran Nisar
Ivy Shiue
Bryan L. Sykes
Hideaki Toyoshima
Seok‐Jun Yoon
Sofia Androudi
Elizabeth A. Cromwell
John J. Huang
Burcu Küçük Biçer
Van Charles Lansingh
Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar
Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman
Mohammad Ali Sahraian
Mehdi Yaseri
Shouling Wu
María Dolores Sánchez-Niño
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
Leslie T. Cooper
Khanh Bao Tran
Michael Brainin
Olatunde Aremu
Mark Strong
Elke Schäeffner
Daniel Dicker
Nancy Fullman
Juanita A. Haagsma
Nicholas J Kassebaum
Yohannes Kinfu
Grant Nguyen
David M. Pigott
Leo Zoeckler
Arsène Kouablan Adou
Ala’a Alkerwi
Rajaa Al‐Raddadi
Ubai Alsharif
Azmeraw T. Amare
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio
Al Artaman
Hamid Asayesh
Reza Assadi
Suleman Atique
Euripide Avokpaho
Ashish Awasthi
Peter Azzopardi
Arindam Basu
Michelle L. Bell
Adugnaw Berhane
Alexandra Bražinová
Julio César Campuzano
Jacqueline Castillo Rivas
Ferrán Catalá-López
Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang
Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa
Cyrus Cooper
Monica Cortinovis
Kebede Deribe
Don C. Des Jarlais
Manisha Dubey
Aman Yesuf Endries
Sergey Petrovich Ermakov
Babak Eshrati
Kyle J Foreman
Thomas Fürst
Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé
Teshome Gebre
Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Hector Gómez‐Dantés
Philimon Gona
Amador Goodridge
Gessessew Bugssa Hailu
Alexis J. Handal
Yuantao Hao
Hilda L Harb
Kim Moesgaard Iburg
Nader Jahanmehr
Mehdi Javanbakht
Achala Upendra Jayatilleke
Corine Karema
Anil Kaul
Norito Kawakami
Andre Keren
Michael Kutz
Hilton Y. Lam
Juan Liang
Raimundas Lunevičius
Mark T. Mackay
Marek Majdán
Wagner Marcenes
Felix Masiye
Peter Memiah
Jean B. Nachega
Luigi Naldi
Frida Ngalesoni
Pedro R. Olivares
Erika Ota
Eun‐Kee Park
Max Petzold
Julian David Pillay
Anwar Rafay
Sajjad Ur Rahman
Saša Rajšić
Usha Ram
María Jesús Ríos-Blancas
Maheswar Satpathy
Monika Sawhney
Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider
Soraya Seedat
Edson Serván‐Mori
Katya Anne Shackelford
Masood Ali Shaikh
Rajesh Sharma
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira
Karen Sliwa
Bruno Sunguya
Cassandra Szoeke
Nikhil Tandon
Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
A. J. Thomson
Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov
Charles Shey Wiysonge
Pengpeng Ye
Zoubida Zaidi
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Hossein Ansari
Tesfay Mehari Atey
Kairat Davletov
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Kristopher J Krohn
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Haftay Berhane Mezgebe
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Behzad Heibati
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Abadi Kahsu Gebre
Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik
Kebede Embaye Gezae
Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman
Tekleberhan B Hagos
Tesfaye Kassa
Yirga Legesse Nirayo
Hagazi Gebre Meles
Getnet Mengistu
Long Hoang Nguyen
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Soumyadeep Bhaumik
Sait Mentes Birlik
Abdulaal Chitheer
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Misgan Legesse Liben
LG Mantovani
Suresh Mehata
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Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum
Mohammad Sadegh Rezai
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Alicia V Aleman
Animut Alebel
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Roy Burstein
Marcel Yotebieng
Amanda J. Mason‐Jones
Rintaro Mori
Margaret Kosek
Tasha Murphy
Ayman Al‐Eyadhy
Hedayat Abbastabar
Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji
Masoud Behzadifar
Pankaj Chaturvedi
Meghnath Dhimal
Ricardo Santiago Gomez
Ravi Mehrotra
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad
Adrian Pană
Mario Šekerija
Nihal Thomas
Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone
Vesna Zadnik
Mahfuzar Rahman
Jun She
Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe
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Reinhard Busse
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Sara Conti
Paolo Angelo Cortesi
Christopher S. Crowe
Carla Fornari
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Srinivas Goli
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Ayman Grada
Behnam Heidari
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Nathaniel J Henry
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Maia Kereselidze
Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie
Young‐Eun Kim
Tufa Kolola
Manasi Kumar
Zohra S Lassi
Fabiana Madotto
Benjamin B. Massenburg
Awoke Temesgen Misganaw
Noushin Mohammadifard
Ruxandra Irina Negoi
Abhijit Pakhare
Alireza Rafiei
Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar
Inbal Salz
Dillon O Sylte
Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla
Santosh Varughese
Sojib Bin Zaman
PN Sylaja
Mohamed Hegazy
Bruno Ramos Nascimento
Badr Hasan Sobaih
Kia Vosoughi
Maryam Mohammadi‐Khanaposhtani
Solomón Mequanente Abay
Nicole Davis Weaver
Berihun Assefa Dachew
Smita Pakhalé
Sharvari Shukla
Narinder Singh
Muhammad Shahzeb Khan
Charles R. Newton
Guilherme V. Polanczyk
Degu Abate
Nooshin Abbasi
Manfred Accrombessi
Pawan Acharya
Sargis A. Aghayan
Kefyalew Addis Alene
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Nahla Anber
Megbaru Debalkie Animut
Mustafa Geleto Ansha
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Arefeh Babazadeh
Meysam Behzadifar
Yihalem Abebe Belay
Robert S. Bernstein
Mircea Beuran
Suraj Bhattarai
Nigus Bililign
Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado
Jorge Cano
Hsing‐Yi Chang
Aparajita Chattopadhyay
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Daniel Collado‐Mateo
Megan Costa
Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa
Jan‐Walter De Neve
Selina Deiparine
Getenet Dessie
David Teye Doku
Kerrie Doyle
Eleonora Dubljanin
Eyasu Ejeta Duken
Soheil Ebrahimpour
Charbel El Bcheraoui
Ziad El‐Khatib
Ahmadali Enayati
Hamed Fakhim
Mahbobeh Faramarzi
Netsanet Fentahun
Garumma Tolu Feyissa
Tilayie Feto Gelano
Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani
Mamata Ghimire
Aloke Gopal Ghoshal
Tiffany K Gill
Prakash C. Gupta
Tanush Gupta
Mehedi Hasan
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Andualem Henok
Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu
Enayatollah Homaie Rad
Chad Ikeda
Suresh Jungari
Rajendra Kadel
Amaha Kahsay
Manoochehr Karami
Dessalegn H Kassa
Grant Rodgers Kemp
Alireza Khajavi
Ardeshir Khosravi
Mohammad Hossein Khosravi
Daniel N Kiirithio
Sheetal D Lad
Alessandra Lafranconi
Arman Latifi
Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan
Narayan Bahadur Mahotra
Reza Majdzadeh
Ana-Laura Manda
Chabila Christopher Mapoma
Melvin Barrientos Marzan
Tivani P. Mashamba-Thompson
Varshil Mehta
Addisu Melese
Mulugeta Melku
Desalegn Tadese Mengistu
Mohammed A. Mohammed
Mehdi Moradinazar
Marilita M. Moschos
Achenef Asmamaw Muche
Kindie Fentahun Muchie
Kate Muller
Jonah Musa
Azin Nahvijou
Gurudatta Naik
Nahid Neamati
Subas Neupane
Mehdi Noroozi
Hamid Reza Nouri
Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh
Mohammad Reza Nowroozi
Peter S. Nyasulu
Richard Ofori‐Asenso
Olanrewaju Oladimeji
Shanti Patel
Snehal T Patil
Ajay Patle
Vishnupriya Rao Paturi
Swayam Prakash
Caroline Purcell
Manorama Purwar
Prabhat Ranjan
Satar Rezaei
Ali Rostami
Roya Safari‐Faramani
Mahdi Safdarian
Haniye Sadat Sajadi
Zikria Saleem
Yahya Salimi
Bruno Piassi Sâo José
Mayank Sardana
Abdur Razzaque Sarker
Arundhati R Sawant
Hosein Shabaninejad
Azadeh Shafieesabet
MohammadBagher Shamsi
Heidar Sharafi
Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini
Peilin Shi
Farhad Shokraneh
Si Si
Tariq Jamal Siddiqi
Narayana Sarma V. Singam
Virendra Singh
Dhirendra Narain Sinha
Adauto Martins Soares Filho
Soheila Sobhani
Michelle Subart
Ipsita Sutradhar
Segen Gebremeskel Tassew
T. Tekalign
Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle
Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin
Binyam Tilahun
Quyen G. To
Thomas Clement Truelsen
Muhammad Usman
Afsane Vaezi
Santos Villafaina
Isidora S Vujcic
Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew
Justyna Widecka
Grant M. A. Wyper
Tomohide Yamada
Yasin Jemal Yasin
Alex Yeshaneh
Engida Yisma
Mohammad Zamani
Zohreh Zare
Glen Mola
Mohammad Hosein Farzaei
Xiaohong Li
Ayuk Betrand Tambe
Bayu Begashaw Bekele
Mate Car
Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo
Ehimario Igumbor
Zemenu Yohannes Kassa
Habibolah Khazaie
Cheru Tesema Leshargie
Okechukwu S. Ogah
Cesar Reis
Shahab Rezaeian
Jarnail Singh Thakur
Seifu Kebede
Jun Zhu
Alireza Abdi
Alireza Khatony
Rajeev Gupta
Kedir Teji Roba
Nu Thi Truong
Farid Najafi
Jingwen Guo
Quique Bassat
Yanping Wang
William A. Petri
Berrak Bora Başara
Sanjay Krishnaswami
George Mugambage Ruhago
Selen Begüm Uzun
Gökalp Kadri Yentür
Payman Salamati
Krishna K Aryal
Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan
Rizwan Kalani
Reginald Quansah
Thomas Hsiao
Julian Chalek
Maxwell Pierce
Nadia Akseer
Busisiwe P. Ncama
Teshome Abuka Abebo
Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom
Pushpendra Kumar
Xie Rachel Kulikoff
Naris Silpakit
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 20212024
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 20172018