Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Norberto Perico, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Ashkan Afshin, Renata Micha, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Christopher J L Murray, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tomi Akinyemiju, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Khalid A Altirkawi, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Johan Ärnlöv, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Alaa Badawi, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lope H. Barrero, Bernhard T. Baune, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Yannick Béjot, Isabela M. Benseñor, Neeraj Bhala, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Boris Bikbov, Soufiane Boufous, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Blair R Bumgarner, Zahid A Butt, Leah E. Cahill, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan Jesús Carrero, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Hanne Christensen, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, José das Neves, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Robert P Dellavalle, Shirin Djalalinia, Tim Driscoll, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Richard C. Franklin, João M. Furtado, Emmanuela Gakidou, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, Peter W. Gething, Paramjit Gill, Giorgia Giussani, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C. Goulart, H. C. Gugnani, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Josep María Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Claudiu Herţeliu, Hans W. Hoek, Hung Chak Ho, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsaïri, Guoqing Hu, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Vivekanand Jha, Oommen John, Jost B. Jonas, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, André Karch, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Christian Kieling, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Mika Kivimäki, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Ratilal Lalloo, Faris Lami, Anders Larsson, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Janni Leung, Miriam Levi, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Pallab K Maulik, Colm McAlinden, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Kala M. Mehta, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Ted R. Miller, Edward J Mills, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Meghan Mooney, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Shane D. Morrison, Ulrich Müeller, Erin C Mullany, Kamarul Imran Musa, Gabriele Nagel, Mohsen Naghavi, Vinay Nangia, Ionuţ Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Alberto Ortíz, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Scott B. Patten, George Patton, David M. Pereira, Konrad Pesudovs, Michael Phillips, Dietrich Plaß, Suzanne Polinder, Maarten J. Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Amir Radfar, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Salman Rawaf, Robert C. Reiner, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Enrico Rubagotti, Perminder S. Sachdev, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Joshua A. Salomon, Abdallah M Samy, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Benn Sartorius, Sonia Saxena, María Inês Schmidt, Aletta E. Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Amira Shaheen, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kenji Shibuya, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, João Pedro Silva, Eirini Skiadaresi, Joan B. Soriano, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Mark A. Stokes, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Fotis Topouzis, Bach Xuan Tran, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Charles Wolfe, Gelin Xu, Yuichiro Yano, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Stephen S Lim, Tsegahun Manyazewal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Patrick John Sur, Joseph S Salama, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Sutapa Agrawal, Umar Bacha, Eduardo Bernabé, Stan Biryukov, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maryam S. Farvid, João Carlos Fernandes, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Richard F Gillum, S Harikrishnan, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Young‐Ho Khang, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Rafael Lozano, Toni Meier, Mojde Mirarefin, Mostafa Qorbani, Rajesh Kumar, Juan Sanabria, Amanda G. Thrift, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Olalekan A. Uthman, Tissa Wijeratne, Denis Xavier, Nicholas Graetz, Semaw Ferede Abera, Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh, Raghib Ali, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Palwasha Anwari, Sı́món Barquera, Derrick Bennett, Michael H Criqui, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Eric L. Ding, André Pascal Kengne, Daniel Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Giancarlo Logroscino, George A. Mensah, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Ivy Shiue, Jasvinder A. Singh, Bryan L. Sykes, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Rupert Bourne, Kovin Naidoo, Sofia Androudi, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, John J. Huang, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Van Charles Lansingh, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Mehdi Yaseri, Miguel A. Barboza, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Niranjan Kissoon, Josef Coresh, Qing Lan, Joseph Frostad, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Haidong Kan, Mark Strong, Prakash Chandra Gupta, Bongani M. Mayosi, Megha Arora, Ryan M Barber, Austin Carter, Nancy Fullman, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Laurie B. Marczak, Grant Nguyen, David M. Pigott, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Ali Kiadaliri, Noore Alam, Samia Alhabib, Ala’a Alkerwi, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Azmeraw T. Amare, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Reza Assadi, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Aleksandra Barać, Lars Barregård, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Michelle L. Bell, Adugnaw Berhane, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Donal Bisanzio, Alexandra Bražinová, David O. Carpenter, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Samantha Colquhoun, John A. Crump, Gail Davey, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Don C. Des Jarlais, Cèsar Díaz‐Torné, Leilei Duan, Manisha Dubey, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Kyle J Foreman, Joseph Friedman, Thomas Fürst, Neal D. Futran, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Katherine B. Gibney, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Philimon Gona, Vipin Gupta, Yara A. Halasa, Mouhanad Hammami, Jamie Hancock, Alexis J. Handal, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Roderick J. Hay, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Nobuyuki Horita, Damian G Hoy, Aung Soe Htet, Hsiang Huang, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Manami Inoue, Nader Jahanmehr, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Paul N. Jensen, Ye Jin, Yogeshwar Kalkonde, Ritul Kamal, Corine Karema, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Andrew H. Kemp, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Sahil Khera, Pauline Kim, Cho‐il Kim, Michael Kravchenko, Ernst J. Kuipers, Michael Kutz, Pablo M Lavados, Ricky Leung, Raimundas Lunevičius, Ronan A Lyons, Mark T. Mackay, Mahdi Mahdavi, Marek Majdán, José Martı́nez-Raga, João Massano, Peter Memiah, Alireza Mohammadi, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Jean B. Nachega, Quyen Le Nguyen, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Erika Ota, Eun‐Kee Park, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Rogelio Pérez‐Padilla, Max Petzold, Frédéric B. Piel, Farhad Pishgar, Svetlana Popova, Richie Poulton, Rynaz H S Rabiee, Anwar Rafay, Mahfuzar Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Saša Rajšić, Usha Ram, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Ambuj Roy, Ramesh Sahathevan, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Soraya Seedat, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sharma, Jiabin Shen, Mark G. Shrime, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Abhishek Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Amber Sligar, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nicholas Steel, Bruno Sunguya, Soumya Swaminathan, Cassandra Szoeke, Nikhil Tandon, David Tanné, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, A. J. Thomson, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Thomas Truelsen, E. Murat Tuzcu, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Yuri Y Varakin, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Scott Weichenthal, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Lijing L. Yan, Pengpeng Ye, Zoubida Zaidi, Hajo Zeeb, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Zühlke, Hossein Ansari, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Ezra B. Ketema, Shimelash Bitew Workie, Kairat Davletov, Peter J. Hotez, Denny John, Abdullah T Khoja, Kristopher J Krohn, Mohsen Mazidi, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Eugène Sobngwi, Tolassa Wakayo, Abdulhalik Workicho, Martin O’Donnell, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Barbora de Courten, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Huyen Phuc, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Samer Alabed, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Dube Jara Boneya, Lemma N Bulto, Honglei Chen, Abdulaal Chitheer, Rahul Gupta, Mitiku Teshome Hambisa, Habtamu Abera Hareri, Anshul Kastor, Misgan Legesse Liben, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, LG Mantovani, Suresh Mehata, Shiva Raj Mishra, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Vuong Minh Nong, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Mete Şaylan, Kald Beshir Tuem, Heidi Stöckl, Traolach Brugha, Deena Alasfoor, Robert W Aldridge, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Cheru Tesema, Setegn Eshetie, Tenaw Yimer Tiruye, Marcel Yotebieng, Maria Albertina Santiago Rego, Rintaro Mori, Carl Lachat, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Gulfaraz Khan, Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Chie Nagata, Adrian Pană, Nihal Thomas, Christl A. Donnelly, Heidi J. Larson, Haidong Wang, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Eyal Oren, Jun She, Fentaw Tadese, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, James D. Wilkinson, Sachin Atre, Shivanthi Balalla, Aminu K. Bello, Josip Car, Maia Kereselidze, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Santosh Varughese, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Peter Bjerregaard, Guy B. Marks, Srinivas Murthy, Smita Pakhalé, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Steven E. Lipshultz, Fernando Pérez-Ruiz, Saeid Shahraz, Rakesh Aggarwal, Mukesh Dherani, Donald H. Silberberg, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Nahla Anber, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Mircea Beuran, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Selina Deiparine, Subhojit Dey, David Teye Doku, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Ahmadali Enayati, Tahvi Frank, Ricard Gènova-Maleras, Tanush Gupta, Hassan Haghparast‐Bidgoli, Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Yu Liao, Rakesh Lodha, Stefan Ma, Reza Majdzadeh, Kalayu Brhane Mruts, Kate Muller, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Rosana Pacella, Manorama Purwar, Satar Rezaei, Nafis Sadat, Mahdi Safdarian, Sundeep Salvi, Peilin Shi, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, David L. Smith, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Mate Car, Ehimario Igumbor, Rajeev Gupta, Esayas Haregot Hilawe, William A. Petri, Gene Bukhman, Shifalika Goenka, Sungroul Kim, Veena S. Kulkarni, Ami R. Moore, Luke Nyakarahuka, Aslam Pervaiz, Saleem M Rana, George Mugambage Ruhago, Shireen Sindi, Samir Soneji, Ulises Trujillo, Payman Salamati, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Shalini D. Allam, James R. Bennett, Nadia Akseer, Elena Álvarez Martín, Bereket Yakob, Ashagre Molla Assaye, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Sneha Aiyar, Erfan Amini, Krishna Kumar Aryal, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Jennifer Benson, Derbew Fikadu Berhe, Pushpendra Kumar, Maya Fraser, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Naris Silpakit, A. S. Akanda, Thomas Jaenisch, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Sarah E. Ray, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Rubén Castro, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Emmanuel A Ameh, Christopher D. Blosser, Mirriam Chibalabala, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Kadine Priscila Bender dos Santos, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Jefferson Gomes Fernandes, Кетеван Гамбашидзе, Dennis Odai Laryea, Chabila C Mapoma, Awoke Misganaw, Marika Nomura, Balakrishna P Shetty, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Ramesh Vidavalur, Ayalnesh Zemene Yalew, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Mansour Shamsipour, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, G. V. S. Murthy, Tejas Patel, Avula Laxmaiah, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Narayan Prasad, Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan, Nigussie Assefa Kassaw, Abraham K Lagat, Anton Lager, Anthony Lin Zhang, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Anil Bhansali, Charles Birungi, Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, Dirk Douwes‐Schultz, Fanuel Belayneh Bekele Fanuel, Tesfaye Regassa Feyissa, Ibrahim A Khalil, Nkurunziza Lambert, Rajesh Malhotra, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Sanjay K. Mohanty, Sarah K Mollenkopf, Anselm Okoro, Basant Kumar Panda, Carrie Beth Peterson, Paturi Vishnupriya Rao, Soheil Saadat, Jayendra Sharma, Girma Temam Shifa, Tesfalidet Tekelab, Belay Tesssema, Miguel Tortajada, Benjamin Uzochukwu, Job F. M. van Boven, Stein Emil Vollset, Mohsen Yaghoubi, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Xueying Zhang, Jürgen Rehm, Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, Geetha R. Menon, Walid Ammar, Rana Jawad Asghar, Seyed M Karimi, Konstantin Kazanjan, Bikila Lencha Gemechu, Mubarek Abera Mengistie, Aarón Cohen, Nazrul Islam, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Fekede Asefa Kumsa, Scott A. Lorch, Deepak Paudel, Yogesh Sabde, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Asnake Ararsa Irenso, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Ifedayo Adetifa, Ibthiel Aichour, Juma Alkaabi, Ísis Eloah Machado, Andrew Theis, Sefonias Getachew Kelbore, Shawn Minnig, Murali B V Mohan, Rizwan Abdulkader Suliankatchi, Belete Getahun Woldeyes, Carlos Magis‐Rodríguez, Abhishek Vishnu, Yongmei Li, Dejen Yemane, Amha Admasie Gelaye, Fei He, Bereket Gebremichael Menota, Mohammad Bagher Rokni, Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, Alex H Thompson, Abdulbasit Seid, Michael Burch, Priyanka Dixit, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi, Mengistu Welday Gebremichael, Kasiye Shiferaw Gemechu, Bedilu Weji Girma, Beatriz Gómez, Alex Hakuzimana, Sami Kishawi, Erlyn RachelleKing Macarayan, Stephen T. McGarvey, Joseph Mikesell, Lipika Nanda, Musharaf Tarajia, Jillian Waid, Joshua Wesana
2017-09-01
SCID:  54.1/7y4ux987 Discuss with AI
Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016)adult mortality (15-60 years)age-specific mortalitylife expectancyunder-5 mortality
Abstract (AI)
BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. INTERPRETATION: Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
Key Findings
1
Absolute gaps in age-standardised death rates between lowest and highest SDI countries narrowed, but relative inequalities (ratios) increased slightly for some age-sex groups.
2
Adult deaths (age >25) increased in absolute numbers across each 5-year age bracket between 1970 and 2016, while decreases were slower at ages 5–24 years.
3
Completeness of death registration rose from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013, with declines after 2013 due to reporting lags.
4
Global under-5 deaths and stillbirth rates decreased from 1970 to 2016, with the largest mortality improvements among children younger than 5 years.
5
Life expectancy increased globally between 1970 and 2016, especially at higher SDI levels; in 2016 female life expectancy was highest in Japan (86.9 years) and male in Singapore (81.3 years).
Research Object

Age- and sex-specific all-cause mortality rates and life expectancy estimates for global, regional, national, and selected subnational populations (195 countries and territories, 1970–2016)

Research Subject

Estimation and analysis of patterns, trends, completeness of death registration, under-5 and adult mortality (U5MR and 15–60 adult mortality), causes of fatal discontinuities (conflict, disasters, epidemics), convergence/divergence by Socio-demographic Index, and observed versus expected life expectancy over 1970–2016

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2017-09-01
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Authors
Norberto Perico
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Ashkan Afshin
Renata Micha
Amirhossein Sahebkar
Christopher J L Murray
Cristiana Abbafati
Kaja Abbas
Foad Abd-Allah
Laith J. Abu‐Raddad
Olatunji Adetokunboh
Anurag Agrawal
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Tomi Akinyemiju
Fares Alahdab
Ziyad Al‐Aly
Khurshid Alam
Syed Mohamed Aljunid
François Alla
Peter Allebeck
Khalid A Altirkawi
Cătălina Liliana Andrei
Johan Ärnlöv
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Alaa Badawi
Suzanne Barker‐Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Lope H. Barrero
Bernhard T. Baune
Neeraj Bedi
Ettore Beghi
Yannick Béjot
Isabela M. Benseñor
Neeraj Bhala
Zulfiqar A Bhutta
Boris Bikbov
Soufiane Boufous
Nicholas J. K. Breitborde
Hermann Brenner
Blair R Bumgarner
Zahid A Butt
Leah E. Cahill
Ismael Campos‐Nonato
Rosario Cárdenas
Juan Jesús Carrero
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
Franz Castro
Jee-Young Jasmine Choi
Hanne Christensen
Liliana G Ciobanu
Massimo Círillo
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
Paul I. Dargan
José das Neves
Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu
Diego De Leo
Louisa Degenhardt
Robert P Dellavalle
Shirin Djalalinia
Tim Driscoll
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
Sharareh Eskandarieh
Alireza Esteghamati
Kara Estep
André Faro
Farshad Farzadfar
Valery L. Feigin
Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Irina Filip
Florian Fischer
Nataliya A Foigt
Richard C. Franklin
João M. Furtado
Emmanuela Gakidou
Alberto L. García‐Basteiro
Peter W. Gething
Paramjit Gill
Giorgia Giussani
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Alessandra C. Goulart
H. C. Gugnani
Nima Hafezi‐Nejad
Randah R Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
Graeme J. Hankey
Josep María Haro
Rasmus Havmoeller
Simon I Hay
Claudiu Herţeliu
Hans W. Hoek
Hung Chak Ho
Sorin Hostiuc
Mohamed Hsaïri
Guoqing Hu
Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine
Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
Kathryn H. Jacobsen
Mihajlo Jakovljević
Panniyammakal Jeemon
Vivekanand Jha
Oommen John
Jost B. Jonas
Mikk Jürisson
Zubair Kabir
André Karch
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
Peter Njenga Keiyoro
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
Christian Kieling
Yun Jin Kim
Ruth W Kimokoti
Mika Kivimäki
Ann Kristin Knudsen
Jacek A Kopec
Parvaiz A Koul
Ai Koyanagi
Barthélémy Kuate Defo
G Anil Kumar
Ratilal Lalloo
Faris Lami
Anders Larsson
Paul H. Lee
James Leigh
Janni Leung
Miriam Levi
Shai Linn
Shiwei Liu
Alan D Lopez
Stefan Lorkowski
Paulo A. Lotufo
Azeem Majeed
Reza Malekzadeh
Déborah Carvalho Malta
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