Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Глобальные оценки возрастно-полоспецифической рождаемости, смертности, ожидаемой продолжительности здоровой жизни (HALE) и численности населения в 204 странах и территориях за 1950–2019 годы: комплексный демографический анализ для исследования глобального бремени болезней 2019 года
Christopher R. Cederroth, Norberto Perico, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Ashkan Afshin, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Christopher J L Murray, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Peng Zheng, Kaja Abbas, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Hassan Abolhassani, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk, Maryam Adabi, Victor Adekanmbi, Abiodun M. Adeoye, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Shailesh M Advani, Anurag Agrawal, Keivan Ahmadi, Hamid Ahmadieh, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Shazia Alam, Fahad Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Muhammad Ali, Gianfranco Alicandro, Vahid Alipour, Hesam Alizade, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Peter Allebeck, Amir Almasi‐Hashiani, Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Mostafa Amini‐Rarani, Robert Ancuceanu, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Colin Angus, Mina Anjomshoa, Fereshteh Ansari, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Catherine M Antony, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab‐Zozani, Johan Ärnlöv, Ali A. Asadi‐Pooya, Marcel Ausloos, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Ghasem Azarian, Ashish Badiye, Mohammad Amin Bahrami, Ahad Bakhtiari, Maciej Banach, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Bernhard T. Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Michellr L Bell, Isabela M. Benseñor, Adam E. Berman, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Neeraj Bhala, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Antonio Biondi, Catherine Bisignano, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Somayeh Bohlouli, Mehdi Bohluli, Antonio Maria Borzì, Shiva Borzouei, Dejana Braithwaite, Andrey Briko, Н. И. Брико, Blair R Bumgarner, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Luis LA Alberto Cámera, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Juan Jesús Carrero, Félix Carvalho, João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia, Giulio Castelpietra, Franz Castro, Ester Cerin, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Vera Marisa Costa, Richard G. Cowden, Saad M A Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, Diego De Leo, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Nikolaos Dervenis, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Díaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Hoa Do, Клара Докова, Fariba Dorostkar, Leila Doshmangir, André Rodrigues Durães, David Edvardsson, Iman El Sayed, Maha El Tantawi, Iffat Elbarazi, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Kara Estep, Mohammad Farahmand, Mohammad Fareed, Roghiyeh Faridnia, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Valery L. Feigin, Eduarda Fernandes, Manuela L. Ferreira, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Marisa Freitas, Takeshi Fukumoto, João M. Furtado, Mohamed M. Gad, Emmanuela Gakidou, Silvano Gallus, Peter W. Gething, Farhad Ghamari, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Asadollah Gholamian, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C. Goulart, H. C. Gugnani, Yuming Guo, Tarun Gupta, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Iman Halvaei, Randah R Hamadeh, Graeme J. Hankey, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep María Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Reza Heidari‐Soureshjani, Claudiu Herţeliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Praveen Hoogar, Hung Chak Ho, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Guoqing Hu, Tanvir Huda, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Kevin S Ikuta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, M Mofizul Islam, Hiroyasu Iso, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Jalil Jaafari, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Farzad Jalilian, Spencer L James, Hosna Janjani, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S. Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Hamed Kalani, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Leila R Kalankesh, Tanuj Kanchan, Neeti Kapoor, André Karch, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Gbenga A Kayode, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Cathleen Keller, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Maseer Khan, Mona M Khater, Salman Khazaei, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Kris J Krohn, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Vivek Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Ratilal Lalloo, Anders Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Paul H. Lee, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Matilde Leonardi, Shanshan Li, Lee‐Ling Lim, Shai Linn, Alan D Lopez, Platon D Lopukhov, Paulo A. Lotufo, Alton Lu, Emilie R Maddison, Phetole Walter Mahasha, M Mahdavi, Reza Malekzadeh, Abdullah Al Mamun, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Santi Martini, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Anthony Masaka, Manu Raj Mathur, Colm McAlinden, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Fereshteh Mehri, Kala M. Mehta, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Irmina Maria Michałek, Ted R. Miller, Edward J Mills, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Hamed Mirzaei, Maryam Mirzaei, Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Babak Moazen, Dara K. Mohammad, Yousef Mohammad, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Hussen Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Meghan Mooney, Ghobad Moradi, Masoud Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Shane D. Morrison, Jonathan F Mosser, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Ulrich Müeller, Kamarul Imran Musa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Behshad Naghshtabrizi, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Molly R Nixon, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Shuhei Nomura, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Christoph Nowak, Adrian Oţoiu, Christopher M Odell, In‐Hwan Oh, Morteza Oladnabi, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, Obinna Onwujekwe, Alberto Ortíz, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Simon Øverland, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Raffaele Palladino, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Deepak Kumar Pasupula, Sangram Kishor Patel, George Patton, Hamidreza Pazoki–Toroudi, Amy E. Peden, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Emmanuel Peprah, David M. Pereira, Tessa M Pilz, М. А. Пирадов, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Maarten J. Postma, Hadi Pourjafar, Farshad Pourmalek, Anna Poznańska, Sergio I. Prada, Quazi Syed Zahiruddin, Mohammad Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alberto Raggi, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Ali Rajabpour-Sanati, Pradhum Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Sowmya J Rao, Vahid Rashedi, Priya Rathi, Lal Rawal, Vishnu Renjith, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Jennifer Rickard, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Enrico Rubagotti, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Siamak Sabour, Basema Saddik, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Yahya Safari, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Zainab Samad, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Benn Sartorius, Arash Sarveazad, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Davide Sattin, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Silvia Schiavolin, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Saeed Shahabi, Amira Shaheen, Ali Shalash, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Kerem Shuval, Soraya Siabani, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir, Kyle E Simpson, Ambrish Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Amin Soheili, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Dan J. Stein, Leo Stockfelt, Mark A. Stokes, Jacob L. Stubbs, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Amir Taherkhani, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, М. В. Титова, Hamid Reza Tohidinik, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Fotis Topouzis, Marcos Roberto Roberto Tovani-Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Ravensara S. Travillian, Lorainne Tudor Car, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Era Upadhyay, Marco Vacante, Pascual Valdéz, Tommi Vasankari, Yasser Vasseghian, Yousef Veisani, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Rade Vuković, Yasir Waheed, Mitchell T. Wallin, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Stefanie Watson, Jingkai Wei, Jordan Weiss, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Kirsten E. Wiens, Charles Wolfe, Junjie Wu, Gelin Xu, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Yuichiro Yano, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi‐Feyzabadi, Tomas Yeheyis, Christopher Sabo Yilgwan, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Theodore Patrick Younker, Zabihollah Yousefi, Abdilahi Yousuf, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Maryam Zamanian, Hamed Zandian, Maigeng Zhou, Arash Ziapour, Michael Bräuer, Stephen S Lim, Hongbo Wang, Akram Pourshams, Joseph S Salama, Yousef Khader, Rafael Lozano, Amanda G. Thrift, Tissa Wijeratne, Thomas Pilgrim, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Derrick Bennett, Soewarta Kosen, Giancarlo Logroscino, George A. Mensah, Bryan L. Sykes, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Sofia Androudi, Eleni Bagli, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Syed Amir Gilani, Sezer Kısa, Navid Manafi, Keyvan Pakshir, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Olatunde Aremu, Ana Vuković, Navid Rabiee, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, David M. Pigott, Euripide Avokpaho, Donal Bisanzio, Ferrán Catalá-López, Kebede Deribe, Damian G Hoy, Nader Jahanmehr, Norito Kawakami, Jagdish Khubchandani, Michael Kravchenko, Raimundas Lunevičius, Peter Memiah, Edson Serván‐Mori, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sharma, Mark G. Shrime, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Kairat Davletov, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Fablina Sharara, Chieh Han, Eve E Wool, Matthew Cunningham, Behzad Heibati, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Mete Şaylan, Simone Vidale, Hedayat Abbastabar, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Mohammad Aghaali, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Tone Bjørge, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Firooz Esmaeilzadeh, Tamás Joó, Amir M Khater, Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek, Pawan Faris, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Ahmed Omar Bali, Adrian Pană, Jenil Patel, Liliana Preoțescu, Mario Šekerija, Mohammed Shannawaz, Nihal Thomas, Eugenio Traini, Emanuele D’Amico, Heidi J. Larson, Mitra Abbasifard, Oladimeji Adebayo, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde‐Rabanal, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Arya Aminorroaya, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Iman Ansari, Ebrahim Babaee, Shelly Balassyano, Palash Chandra Banik, Akbar Barzegar, Gholamreza Bazmandegan, Gregory J Bertolacci, Oliver J. Brady, Ken Lee Chin, Rupak Desai, Chirag Doshi, Anwar Faraj, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Carsten Flohr, Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Mojgan Gitimoghaddam, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nathaniel J Henry, Michael K. Hole, Deepa Jahagirdar, Amir Jalali, Zahra Kamiab, Salah Eddin Karimi, Mohammad Taghi Khodayari, Neda Kianipour, Young‐Eun Kim, Manasi Kumar, Zohra S Lassi, Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei, Kebadnew Mulatu, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Efat Mohamadi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Deepak Kumar Pasupula, Alexandre C. Pereira, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Alireza Rafiei, Davide Rasella, Prateek Rastogi, Inbal Salz, Anton Sokhan, Agus Sudaryanto, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Whitney L Teagle, Berhane Fseha Teklehaimanot, Alireza Vakilian, Taweewat Wiangkham, Bogdan Wojtyniak, Jamal A Yearwood, Javad Yoosefi Lebni, Sojib Bin Zaman, Samaneh Asgari, David Teye Doku, Kerrie Doyle, Eleonora Dubljanin, Andem Effiong, Rakesh Lodha, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Farnam Mohebi, Gurudatta Naik, Katherine Paulson, Ehsan Sadeghi, Yahya Salimi, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Isidora S Vujcic, Tomohide Yamada, Mohammad Zamani, Habibolah Khazaie, Rajeev Gupta, Payman Salamati, Taraneh Yousefinezhadi, Constantine Vardavas, James Park, Alessandro Valli, Krishna K Aryal, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Young-Ho Khang, Josefina Zakzuk, Mohammad Shahbaz, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tim Adair, Pushpendra Kumar, Charlton Callender, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Е. В. Глушкова, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Haidong Wang, Cyrus Alinia, Majid A. Almadi, Arwa Alumran, Madhu Sudhan Atteraya, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Tianji Cai, Haley Comfort, Andrew J. Croneberger, Ilse N Dippenaar, Nazir Fattahi, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, John E Fuller, Subodh S. Gupta, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Kiana F. Henny, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Seyed Asaad Karimi, Cho-il Kim, Yohannes Kinfu, Hamidreza Komaki, Sônia Lansky, Andrew T Leever, Mohammed Madadin, Claudia I. Mastrogiacomo, Erin A May, George Milne, Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi, Mohammad Ali Mohseni Bandpei, Amin Mokari, Natalie C. Momen, Behnam Nabavizadeh, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Amin Reza Nikpoor, Soraya Nouraei Motlagh, Spencer A Pease, Sanjay Prakash, Morteza Rostamian, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Joshua A Salomon, Mahsima Shabani, Mohammad Bagher Shamsi, Zeinab Sharafi, David H. Shaw, Biagio Simonetti, Muming Tang, Heather Jean Taylor, Sergi Trias‐Llimós, Magdalene K Walters, Girmay Teklay, Adam Wondmieneh, Ai-Min Wu, Hunter York, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Faris Hasan Lami, Stein Emil Vollset, Stefanie Watson, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, David H Shaw, Alireza Ansari‐Moghaddam, Samantha Leigh Larson, Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Shiva Borzouei
2020-10-01
SCID:  54.1/8gwhg29y Discuss with AI
Global Burden of Disease Study 2019HIV-free life tablesage-specific fertility rateshealthy life expectancyspatiotemporal Gaussian process regression
Abstract (AI)
BACKGROUND: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. METHODS: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. FINDINGS: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. INTERPRETATION: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Key Findings
1
Adult mortality was estimated as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 using registration data, sample registration, sibling histories, and bias-corrected spatiotemporal modeling.
2
GBD 2019 provides updated demographic estimates for fertility, mortality, migration, HALE, and population across 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019.
3
GBD-specific life tables combined under-5 and adult mortality, incorporating independently estimated HIV mortality in countries with large HIV epidemics.
4
Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression generated age-specific fertility rates for ages 15–49, extended to ages 10–14 and 50–54 for total fertility rate estimation.
5
The analysis integrated thousands of vital-registration records, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate age-specific fertility and mortality.
Research Object

Global populations in 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations, 1950–2019

Research Subject

Age- and sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy, net migration, and population estimates and their temporal patterns

Publication Details
Publication Date
2020-10-01
Journal
Publisher
ISSN
Access Type
Author Information
Authors
Christopher R. Cederroth
Norberto Perico
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Ashkan Afshin
Amirhossein Sahebkar
Christopher J L Murray
Aleksandr Y. Aravkin
Peng Zheng
Kaja Abbas
Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari
Foad Abd-Allah
Ahmed Abdelalim
Hassan Abolhassani
Lucas Guimarães Abreu
Michael R.M. Abrigo
Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk
Maryam Adabi
Victor Adekanmbi
Abiodun M. Adeoye
Olatunji Adetokunboh
Shailesh M Advani
Anurag Agrawal
Keivan Ahmadi
Hamid Ahmadieh
Ziyad Al‐Aly
Khurshid Alam
Shazia Alam
Fahad Alanezi
Turki M Alanzi
Muhammad Ali
Gianfranco Alicandro
Vahid Alipour
Hesam Alizade
Syed Mohamed Aljunid
Peter Allebeck
Amir Almasi‐Hashiani
Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi
Khalid A Altirkawi
Mostafa Amini‐Rarani
Robert Ancuceanu
Cătălina Liliana Andrei
Colin Angus
Mina Anjomshoa
Fereshteh Ansari
Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam
Carl Abelardo T Antonio
Catherine M Antony
Davood Anvari
Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
Jalal Arabloo
Morteza Arab‐Zozani
Johan Ärnlöv
Ali A. Asadi‐Pooya
Marcel Ausloos
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Getinet Ayano
Martin Amogre Ayanore
Ghasem Azarian
Ashish Badiye
Mohammad Amin Bahrami
Ahad Bakhtiari
Maciej Banach
Suzanne Barker‐Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Sanjay Basu
Bernhard T. Baune
Mohsen Bayati
Neeraj Bedi
Michellr L Bell
Isabela M. Benseñor
Adam E. Berman
Bhageerathy Reshmi
Neeraj Bhala
Krittika Bhattacharyya
Zulfiqar A Bhutta
Ali Bijani
Antonio Biondi
Catherine Bisignano
Raaj Kishore Biswas
Somayeh Bohlouli
Mehdi Bohluli
Antonio Maria Borzì
Shiva Borzouei
Dejana Braithwaite
Andrey Briko
Н. И. Брико
Blair R Bumgarner
Sharath Burugina Nagaraja
Zahid A Butt
Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos
Luis LA Alberto Cámera
Ismael Campos‐Nonato
Rosario Cárdenas
Giulia Carreras
Juan Jesús Carrero
Félix Carvalho
João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia
Giulio Castelpietra
Franz Castro
Ester Cerin
Vijay Kumar Chattu
Dinh‐Toi Chu
Liliana G Ciobanu
Massimo Círillo
Vera Marisa Costa
Richard G. Cowden
Saad M A Dahlawi
Giovanni Damiani
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
Paul I. Dargan
Aso Mohammad Darwesh
Ahmad Daryani
Rajat Das Gupta
José das Neves
Diego De Leo
Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez
Nikolaos Dervenis
Govinda Prasad Dhungana
Diana Dias da Silva
Daniel Díaz
Shirin Djalalinia
Hoa Do
Клара Докова
Fariba Dorostkar
Leila Doshmangir
André Rodrigues Durães
David Edvardsson
Iman El Sayed
Maha El Tantawi
Iffat Elbarazi
Shaimaa I El-Jaafary
Sharareh Eskandarieh
Kara Estep
Mohammad Farahmand
Mohammad Fareed
Roghiyeh Faridnia
André Faro
Farshad Farzadfar
Mehdi Fazlzadeh
Valery L. Feigin
Eduarda Fernandes
Manuela L. Ferreira
Irina Filip
Florian Fischer
Nataliya A Foigt
Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan
Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov
Marisa Freitas
Takeshi Fukumoto
João M. Furtado
Mohamed M. Gad
Emmanuela Gakidou
Silvano Gallus
Peter W. Gething
Farhad Ghamari
Ahmad Ghashghaee
Asadollah Gholamian
E. V. Gnedovskaya
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Alessandra C. Goulart
H. C. Gugnani
Yuming Guo
Tarun Gupta
Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian
Arya Haj‐Mirzaian
Iman Halvaei
Randah R Hamadeh
Graeme J. Hankey
Hamidreza Haririan
Josep María Haro
Ahmed I Hasaballah
Soheil Hassanipour
Hadi Hassankhani
Simon I Hay
Reza Heidari‐Soureshjani
Claudiu Herţeliu
Fatemeh Heydarpour
Praveen Hoogar
Hung Chak Ho
Naznin Hossain
Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
Mihaela Hostiuc
Sorin Hostiuc
Mowafa Househ
Guoqing Hu
Tanvir Huda
Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye
Kevin S Ikuta
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
Irena Ilić
Milena Ilić
M Mofizul Islam
Hiroyasu Iso
Chinwe Juliana Iwu
Jalil Jaafari
Kathryn H. Jacobsen
Farzad Jalilian
Spencer L James
Hosna Janjani
Ensiyeh Jenabi
Ravi Prakash Jha
Vivekanand Jha
John S. Ji
Jost B. Jonas
Farahnaz Joukar
Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak
Mikk Jürisson
Zubair Kabir
Hamed Kalani
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
Leila R Kalankesh
Tanuj Kanchan
Neeti Kapoor
André Karch
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
Gbenga A Kayode
Peter Njenga Keiyoro
Cathleen Keller
Nauman Khalid
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
Maseer Khan
Mona M Khater
Salman Khazaei
Yun Jin Kim
Adnan Kısa
Mika Kivimäki
Jacek A Kopec
Parvaiz A Koul
Ai Koyanagi
Kewal Krishan
Kris J Krohn
Barthélémy Kuate Defo
G Anil Kumar
Vivek Kumar
Dian Kusuma
Carlo La Vecchia
Ben Lacey
Ratilal Lalloo
Anders Larsson
Savita Lasrado
Jeffrey V. Lazarus
Paul H. Lee
Shaun Wen Huey Lee
Kate E LeGrand
Matilde Leonardi
Shanshan Li
Lee‐Ling Lim
Shai Linn
Alan D Lopez
Platon D Lopukhov
Paulo A. Lotufo
Alton Lu
Emilie R Maddison
Phetole Walter Mahasha
M Mahdavi
Reza Malekzadeh
Abdullah Al Mamun
Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei
Borhan Mansouri
Mohammad Alì Mansournia
Santi Martini
Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo
Anthony Masaka
Manu Raj Mathur
Colm McAlinden
John J. McGrath
Martin McKee
Man Mohan Mehndiratta
Fereshteh Mehri
Kala M. Mehta
Walter Mendoza
Ritesh G. Menezes
Endalkachew Worku Mengesha
Atte Meretoja
Tuomo J Meretoja
Tomislav Meštrović
Irmina Maria Michałek
Ted R. Miller
Edward J Mills
Erkin М Мirrakhimov
Hamed Mirzaei
Maryam Mirzaei
Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh
Babak Moazen
Dara K. Mohammad
Yousef Mohammad
Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji
Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani
Reza Mohammadpourhodki
Hussen Mohammed
Shafiu Mohammed
Ali H. Mokdad
Lorenzo Monasta
Meghan Mooney
Ghobad Moradi
Masoud Moradi
Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh
Rahmatollah Moradzadeh
Paula Moraga
Joana Morgado-da-Costa
Shane D. Morrison
Jonathan F Mosser
Simin Mouodi
Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
Amin Mousavi Khaneghah
Ulrich Müeller
Kamarul Imran Musa
Muthupandian Saravanan
Mehdi Naderi
Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan
Mohsen Naghavi
Behshad Naghshtabrizi
Farid Najafi
Vinay Nangia
Jobert Richie Nansseu
Ionuţ Negoi
Josephine W Ngunjiri
Huong Lan Thi Nguyen
Yeshambel T. Nigatu
Rajan Nikbakhsh
Molly R Nixon
Chukwudi A Nnaji
Shuhei Nomura
Jean Jacques Noubiap
Christoph Nowak
Adrian Oţoiu
Christopher M Odell
In‐Hwan Oh
Morteza Oladnabi
Andrew T Olagunju
Bolajoko O. Olusanya
Jacob Olusegun Olusanya
Sok King Ong
Obinna Onwujekwe
Alberto Ortíz
Nikita Otstavnov
Stanislav S Otstavnov
Simon Øverland
Mayowa Owolabi
P A Mahesh
Jagadish Rao Padubidri
Raffaele Palladino
Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas
Deepak Kumar Pasupula
Sangram Kishor Patel
George Patton
Hamidreza Pazoki–Toroudi
Amy E. Peden
Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito
Emmanuel Peprah
David M. Pereira
Tessa M Pilz
М. А. Пирадов
Meghdad Pirsaheb
Maarten J. Postma
Hadi Pourjafar
Farshad Pourmalek
Anna Poznańska
Sergio I. Prada
Quazi Syed Zahiruddin
Mohammad Rabiee
Amir Radfar
Alberto Raggi
Muhammad Aziz Rahman
Ali Rajabpour-Sanati
Pradhum Ram
Chhabi Lal Ranabhat
Sowmya J Rao
Vahid Rashedi
Priya Rathi
Lal Rawal
Vishnu Renjith
André M. N. Renzaho
Serge Resnikoff
Nima Rezaei
Aziz Rezapour
Jennifer Rickard
Leonardo Roever
Luca Ronfani
Gholamreza Roshandel
Enrico Rubagotti
Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera
Siamak Sabour
Basema Saddik
Masoumeh Sadeghi
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam
Yahya Safari
Sare Safi
Saeid Safiri
Rajesh Sagar
S. Mohammad Sajadi
Marwa Rashad Salem
Zainab Samad
Abdallah M Samy
Juan Sanabria
Milena M Santric-Milicevic
Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy
Benn Sartorius
Arash Sarveazad
Brijesh Sathian
Thirunavukkarasu Sathish
Davide Sattin
Lauren E. Schaeffer
Silvia Schiavolin
David C. Schwebel
Falk Schwendicke
Anbissa Muleta Senbeta
Subramanian Senthilkumaran
Sadaf G Sepanlou
Saeed Shahabi
Amira Shaheen
Ali Shalash
Mehran Shams-Beyranvand
Morteza Shamsizadeh
Kiomars Sharafi
Aziz Sheikh
Jae Il Shin
Rahman Shiri
Kerem Shuval
Soraya Siabani
Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir
Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir
Kyle E Simpson
Ambrish Singh
Eirini Skiadaresi
Valentin Yurievich Skryabin
Amin Soheili
Reed J D Sorensen
Joan B. Soriano
Muluken Bekele Sorrie
Ireneous N Soyiri
Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy
Dan J. Stein
Leo Stockfelt
Mark A. Stokes
Jacob L. Stubbs
Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan
Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos
Karen M. Tabb
Amir Taherkhani
Nuno Taveira
Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi
Zemenu Tadesse Tessema
М. В. Титова
Hamid Reza Tohidinik
Marcello Tonelli
Roman Topór-Mądry
Fotis Topouzis
Marcos Roberto Roberto Tovani-Palone
Bach Xuan Tran
Ravensara S. Travillian
Lorainne Tudor Car
Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan
Era Upadhyay
Marco Vacante
Pascual Valdéz
Tommi Vasankari
Yasser Vasseghian
Yousef Veisani
Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian
Francesco Saverio Violante
Vasily Vlassov
Theo Vos
Rade Vuković
Yasir Waheed
Mitchell T. Wallin
Yuan‐Pang Wang
Stefanie Watson
Jingkai Wei
Jordan Weiss
Andrea Werdecker
Ronny Westerman
Harvey Whiteford
Kirsten E. Wiens
Charles Wolfe
Junjie Wu
Gelin Xu
Kazumasa Yamagishi
Yuichiro Yano
Sanni Yaya
Vahid Yazdi‐Feyzabadi
Tomas Yeheyis
Christopher Sabo Yilgwan
Paul Yip
Naohiro Yonemoto
Mustafa Z Younis
Theodore Patrick Younker
Zabihollah Yousefi
Abdilahi Yousuf
Hasan Yusefzadeh
Telma Zahirian Moghadam
Maryam Zamanian
Hamed Zandian
Maigeng Zhou
Arash Ziapour
Michael Bräuer
Stephen S Lim
Hongbo Wang
Akram Pourshams
Joseph S Salama
Yousef Khader
Rafael Lozano
Amanda G. Thrift
Tissa Wijeratne
Thomas Pilgrim
Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán
Derrick Bennett
Soewarta Kosen
Giancarlo Logroscino
George A. Mensah
Bryan L. Sykes
Seok‐Jun Yoon
Sofia Androudi
Eleni Bagli
Elizabeth A. Cromwell
Mohammad Hassan Emamian
Syed Amir Gilani
Sezer Kısa
Navid Manafi
Keyvan Pakshir
Mohammad Ali Sahraian
Olatunde Aremu
Ana Vuković
Navid Rabiee
Nicholas J Kassebaum
Yohannes Kinfu
Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
David M. Pigott
Euripide Avokpaho
Donal Bisanzio
Ferrán Catalá-López
Kebede Deribe
Damian G Hoy
Nader Jahanmehr
Norito Kawakami
Jagdish Khubchandani
Michael Kravchenko
Raimundas Lunevičius
Peter Memiah
Edson Serván‐Mori
Masood Ali Shaikh
Rajesh Sharma
Mark G. Shrime
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Charles Shey Wiysonge
Leticia Ávila‐Burgos
Kairat Davletov
Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek
Fablina Sharara
Chieh Han
Eve E Wool
Matthew Cunningham
Behzad Heibati
Ilais Moreno Velásquez
Trang Huyen Nguyen
Mohammad Sadegh Rezai
Mete Şaylan
Simone Vidale
Hedayat Abbastabar
Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji
Mohammad Aghaali
Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi
Tone Bjørge
Srinivasa Rao Bolla
Firooz Esmaeilzadeh
Tamás Joó
Amir M Khater
Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek
Pawan Faris
Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek
Masoud Moghadaszadeh
Ahmed Omar Bali
Adrian Pană
Jenil Patel
Liliana Preoțescu
Mario Šekerija
Mohammed Shannawaz
Nihal Thomas
Eugenio Traini
Emanuele D’Amico
Heidi J. Larson
Mitra Abbasifard
Oladimeji Adebayo
Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde‐Rabanal
Mehran Alijanzadeh
Arya Aminorroaya
Arianna Maever L. Amit
Iman Ansari
Ebrahim Babaee
Shelly Balassyano
Palash Chandra Banik
Akbar Barzegar
Gholamreza Bazmandegan
Gregory J Bertolacci
Oliver J. Brady
Ken Lee Chin
Rupak Desai
Chirag Doshi
Anwar Faraj
Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Carsten Flohr
Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot
Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin
Mojgan Gitimoghaddam
Juanita A. Haagsma
Nathaniel J Henry
Michael K. Hole
Deepa Jahagirdar
Amir Jalali
Zahra Kamiab
Salah Eddin Karimi
Mohammad Taghi Khodayari
Neda Kianipour
Young‐Eun Kim
Manasi Kumar
Zohra S Lassi
Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei
Kebadnew Mulatu
Awoke Temesgen Misganaw
Efat Mohamadi
Ruxandra Irina Negoi
Deepak Kumar Pasupula
Alexandre C. Pereira
Khem Narayan Pokhrel
Alireza Rafiei
Davide Rasella
Prateek Rastogi
Inbal Salz
Anton Sokhan
Agus Sudaryanto
Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla
Whitney L Teagle
Berhane Fseha Teklehaimanot
Alireza Vakilian
Taweewat Wiangkham
Bogdan Wojtyniak
Jamal A Yearwood
Javad Yoosefi Lebni
Sojib Bin Zaman
Samaneh Asgari
David Teye Doku
Kerrie Doyle
Eleonora Dubljanin
Andem Effiong
Rakesh Lodha
Chabila Christopher Mapoma
Farnam Mohebi
Gurudatta Naik
Katherine Paulson
Ehsan Sadeghi
Yahya Salimi
Thomas Clement Truelsen
Isidora S Vujcic
Tomohide Yamada
Mohammad Zamani
Habibolah Khazaie
Rajeev Gupta
Payman Salamati
Taraneh Yousefinezhadi
Constantine Vardavas
James Park
Alessandro Valli
Krishna K Aryal
Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah
Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan
Young-Ho Khang
Josefina Zakzuk
Mohammad Shahbaz
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Tim Adair
Pushpendra Kumar
Charlton Callender
Dharmesh Kumar Lal
Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos
Е. В. Глушкова
Emma Elizabeth Spurlock
Haidong Wang
Cyrus Alinia
Majid A. Almadi
Arwa Alumran
Madhu Sudhan Atteraya
Kidanemaryam Berhe
Tianji Cai
Haley Comfort
Andrew J. Croneberger
Ilse N Dippenaar
Nazir Fattahi
Ali Akbar Fazaeli
John E Fuller
Subodh S. Gupta
Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso
Kiana F. Henny
Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab
Seyed Asaad Karimi
Cho-il Kim
Yohannes Kinfu
Hamidreza Komaki
Sônia Lansky
Andrew T Leever
Mohammed Madadin
Claudia I. Mastrogiacomo
Erin A May
George Milne
Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi
Mohammad Ali Mohseni Bandpei
Amin Mokari
Natalie C. Momen
Behnam Nabavizadeh
Duduzile Ndwandwe
Amin Reza Nikpoor
Soraya Nouraei Motlagh
Spencer A Pease
Sanjay Prakash
Morteza Rostamian
Mohammad Reza Salahshoor
Joshua A Salomon
Mahsima Shabani
Mohammad Bagher Shamsi
Zeinab Sharafi
David H. Shaw
Biagio Simonetti
Muming Tang
Heather Jean Taylor
Sergi Trias‐Llimós
Magdalene K Walters
Girmay Teklay
Adam Wondmieneh
Ai-Min Wu
Hunter York
Zhi-Jiang Zhang
Faris Hasan Lami
Stein Emil Vollset
Stefanie Watson
Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan
David H Shaw
Alireza Ansari‐Moghaddam
Samantha Leigh Larson
Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie
Zahiruddin Quazi Syed
Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel
Shiva Borzouei
Explore further
Open the scid.ai AI chat with a ready-made request: it will find papers on a similar topic and help build a literature review.
Find similar papers in the chat →
Make a presentation
100%