Глобальная, региональная и национальная смертность с разбивкой по возрасту и полу от 282 причин смерти в 195 странах и территориях в 1980–2017 годах: систематический анализ в рамках исследования «Глобальное бремя болезней» 2017 года

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Kazem Rahimi, Norberto Perico, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Ashkan Afshin, Giuseppe Grosso, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Christopher J L Murray, Cristiana Abbafati, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Gina Agarwal, Anurag Agrawal, Mehdi Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Rufus Akinyemi, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Shazia Alam, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Jordi Alonso, Khalid A Altirkawi, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Mina Anjomshoa, Johan Ärnlöv, Marcel Ausloos, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Alaa Badawi, Maciej Banach, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lope H. Barrero, Sanjay Basu, Bernhard T. Baune, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Yannick Béjot, Isabela M. Benseñor, Adam E. Berman, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Cristina Bosetti, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle B. Britton, Zahid A Butt, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Juan Jesús Carrero, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Ester Cerin, Fiona Charlson, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Hanne Christensen, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Flavia Cicuttini, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Ewerton Cousin, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Louisa Degenhardt, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Nikolaos Dervenis, Shirin Djalalinia, Клара Докова, Tim Driscoll, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, André Rodrigues Durães, David Edvardsson, Holly E Erskine, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Mohammad Fareed, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Alize J Ferrari, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Takeshi Fukumoto, João M. Furtado, Silvano Gallus, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, William M. Gardner, Peter W. Gething, Paramjit Gill, Giorgia Giussani, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C. Goulart, H. C. Gugnani, Yuming Guo, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Josep María Haro, Hadi Hassankhani, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Claudiu Herţeliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hans W. Hoek, Praveen Hoogar, Hung Chak Ho, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Guoqing Hu, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Spencer L James, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, Catherine O. Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, André Karch, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Mona M Khater, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Jonathan Kocarnik, Sonali Kochhar, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Faris Lami, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Shanshan Li, Lee‐Ling Lim, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Emilie R Maddison, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Helena Manguerra, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Ashley Marks, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Manu Raj Mathur, Pallab K Maulik, Colm McAlinden, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Kala M. Mehta, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Shane D. Morrison, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Ulrich Müeller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kamarul Imran Musa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Gabriele Nagel, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Minh Nguyen, Molly R Nixon, Shuhei Nomura, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Christopher M Odell, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, Heather Orpana, Alberto Ortíz, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Simon Øverland, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Charles Parry, George Patton, David M. Pereira, Konrad Pesudovs, Michael Phillips, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Suzanne Polinder, Maarten J. Postma, Amir Radfar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Puja C Rao, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Robert C. Reiner, Marissa B Reitsma, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Nicholas L S Roberts, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Enrico Rubagotti, Perminder S. Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Nasir Salam, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Damian Santomauro, Itamar S Santos, João Vasco Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Sonia Saxena, María Inês Schmidt, Aletta E. Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Amira Shaheen, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Soraya Siabani, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir, João Pedro Silva, Ambrish Singh, Moslem Soofi, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, Ireneous N Soyiri, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Mark A. Stokes, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Ken Takahashi, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, George D. Thurston, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Anna E Torre, Mathilde Touvier, Bach Xuan Tran, Lorainne Tudor Car, Pascual Valdéz, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Yasir Waheed, Mitchell T. Wallin, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Charles Wolfe, Gelin Xu, Simon Yadgir, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Yuichiro Yano, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Maigeng Zhou, Stephen S Lim, Leila Jahangiry, Elisabete Weiderpass, Akram Pourshams, K. Srinath Reddy, Patrick John Sur, Joseph S Salama, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Abebe Zegeye, Sutapa Agrawal, Umar Bacha, Hamid Badali, Eduardo Bernabé, Anh Kim Dang, Meaza Girma Degefa, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, Maryam S. Farvid, João Carlos Fernandes, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Richard F Gillum, S Harikrishnan, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Farhad Islami, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Fakher Rahim, Young‐Ho Khang, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Rafael Lozano, Winfried März, Mojde Mirarefin, Viswanathan Mohan, Hossein Poustchi, Mostafa Qorbani, Rajesh Kumar, Christian Razo-García, Juan Sanabria, Amanda G. Thrift, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Olalekan A. Uthman, Denis Xavier, Semaw Ferede Abera, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari, Sı́món Barquera, Derrick Bennett, Jung‐Chen Chang, Rajiv Chowdhury, Michael H Criqui, Adrian Davis, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Eric L. Ding, Atsushi Goto, Abdullatif Husseini, Bulat Idrisov, André Pascal Kengne, Daniel Kim, Li Y, George A. Mensah, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Ivy Shiue, Bryan L. Sykes, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Sofia Androudi, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, John J. Huang, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Van Charles Lansingh, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Mehdi Yaseri, Shouling Wu, Miguel A. Barboza, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Leslie T. Cooper, Khanh Bao Tran, Carol Brayne, Olatunde Aremu, Elke Schäeffner, Austin Carter, Daniel Dicker, Christina Fitzmaurice, Nancy Fullman, Ellen M Goldberg, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Laurie B. Marczak, Grant Nguyen, Helen Elizabeth Olsen, David M. Pigott, Christopher Troeger, Ali Kiadaliri, Ala’a Alkerwi, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Azmeraw T. Amare, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Suleman Atique, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Peter Azzopardi, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Michelle L. Bell, Donal Bisanzio, Rohan Borschmann, Alexandra Bražinová, Julio César Campuzano, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Monica Cortinovis, John A. Crump, Kebede Deribe, Don C. Des Jarlais, Manisha Dubey, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Matthias Endres, Aman Yesuf Endries, Babak Eshrati, Kyle J Foreman, Thomas Fürst, Neal D. Futran, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Katherine B. Gibney, Ibrahim Ginawi, Maurice Giroud, Hector Gómez‐Dantés, Philimon Gona, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Alexis J. Handal, Hilda L Harb, Roderick J. Hay, Pouria Heydarpour, Damian G Hoy, Nader Jahanmehr, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Corine Karema, Anil Kaul, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Jagdish Khubchandani, Michael Kravchenko, Michael Kutz, Jennifer O. Lam, Juan Liang, Raimundas Lunevičius, Mark T. Mackay, Marek Majdán, Wagner Marcenes, Brian J. McMahon, Peter Memiah, Anoushka Millear, John Everett Mumford, Jean B. Nachega, Luigi Naldi, Frida Ngalesoni, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Pedro R. Olivares, Eun‐Kee Park, Max Petzold, Frédéric B. Piel, Julian David Pillay, Farhad Pishgar, Anwar Rafay, Mahfuzar Rahman, Saša Rajšić, Usha Ram, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, María Jesús Ríos-Blancas, Ambuj Roy, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, James G. Scott, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sharma, Mark G. Shrime, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Prashant Kumar Singh, Karen Sliwa, Luciano A. Sposato, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Cassandra Szoeke, Nikhil Tandon, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, E. Murat Tuzcu, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Gregory R. Wagner, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Lijing L. Yan, Zoubida Zaidi, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Zühlke, Hossein Ansari, Kairat Davletov, Peter J. Hotez, Abdullah T Khoja, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohsen Mazidi, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Eugène Sobngwi, Anne Elise Eggen, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Mehdi Sayyah, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Matthew Cunningham, Judd L. Walson, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Behzad Heibati, Sudhir K. Jain, Emma Nichols, Jemal Abdela, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Mina G Adib, Yohanes Ayele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Belete Biadgo, Yazan Chaiah, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tesfaye Kassa, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Getnet Mengistu, Hosein Safari, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Mehdi Sharif, Mari Smith, Omar Temsah, Miguel Tortajada‐Girbés, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Ebrahim M Yimer, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Abdulaal Chitheer, E. Ray Dorsey, Rahul Gupta, Suresh Mehata, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Jeyaraj Pandian, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Traolach Brugha, Animut Alebel, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Marcel Yotebieng, Susan Hutfless, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Hedayat Abbastabar, Masoud Behzadifar, Fernando de la Hoz, Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Prashant Mathur, Ravi Mehrotra, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Adrian Pană, Mario Šekerija, Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Nihal Thomas, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Vesna Zadnik, Christl A. Donnelly, Heidi J. Larson, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Eyal Oren, Jun She, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Abdu A. Adamu, Oladimeji Adebayo, Kareha M Agesa, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Sachin Atre, Marlena S. Bannick, Aminu K. Bello, Gregory J Bertolacci, Molly H Biehl, Oliver J. Brady, Reinhard Busse, Chris D Castle, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Christopher S. Crowe, M. Ashworth Dirac, Carla Fornari, Srinivas Goli, Taren M Gorman, Ayman Grada, André Luiz Sena Guimarães, Delia Hendrie, Nathaniel J Henry, Michael K. Hole, Ankur Joshi, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Young‐Eun Kim, Tufa Kolola, Manasi Kumar, Jennifer H MacLachlan, Fabiana Madotto, Ira Martopullo, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Noushin Mohammadifard, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Abhijit Pakhare, Alexandre C. Pereira, Alireza Rafiei, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Stephen R. Robinson, Inbal Salz, Agus Sudaryanto, Dillon O Sylte, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Lauren B. Wilner, Shadrach Wilson, Sojib Bin Zaman, PN Sylaja, Mohamed Hegazy, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Ali Yadollahpour, Amit Arora, Solomón Mequanente Abay, Nicole Davis Weaver, Guy B. Marks, Georgy Lebedev, Chris Lonsdale, Smita Pakhalé, Sanghamitra Pati, Kai Zhang, D. Alex Quistberg, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Charles R. Newton, Richard Matzopoulos, Donald H. Silberberg, Degu Abate, Nooshin Abbasi, Olifan Zewdie Abil, Manfred Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Alireza Ahmadi, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Léopold Ndemnge Aminde, Nahla Anber, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Zerihun Ataro, Rakesh Ayer, Arefeh Babazadeh, Ayele Geleto, Katherine E Ballesteros, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Meysam Behzadifar, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Robert S. Bernstein, Mircea Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, Suraj Bhattarai, Ver Bilano, Nigus Bililign, Brigette F. Blacker, Luísa Campos Caldeira Brant, Jorge Cano, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Selina Deiparine, Getenet Dessie, Subhojit Dey, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, David Teye Doku, Kerrie Doyle, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Ziad El‐Khatib, Hajer Elkout, Benjamin Er, Hamed Fakhim, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Farzaneh Farhadi, Netsanet Fentahun, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Tahvi Frank, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Ricard Gènova-Maleras, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Mamata Ghimire, Tiffany K Gill, Prakash C. Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Bishal Gyawali, Mehedi Hasan, Akbar Hedayatizadeh‐Omran, Andualem Henok, Sousan Heydarpour, Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Suresh Jungari, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Manoochehr Karami, Dessalegn H Kassa, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Behzad Khafaei, Alireza Khajavi, Muhammad Ali Khan, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Daniel N Kiirithio, Deepesh Lad, Sheetal D Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Arman Latifi, Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau, Rakesh Lodha, Stefan Ma, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Dhaval P Maghavani, Reza Majdzadeh, Ana-Laura Manda, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Varshil Mehta, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Habtamu Mitiku, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Mehdi Moradinazar, Marilita M. Moschos, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Kate Muller, Jonah Musa, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Hae‐Sung Nam, Nahid Neamati, Subas Neupane, Nguyễn Quỳnh Anh, Huong Thanh Nguyen, Nomonde Nolutshungu, Mehdi Noroozi, Hamid Reza Nouri, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammad Reza Nowroozi, Peter S. Nyasulu, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Rosana Pacella, Amir H. Pakpour, Shanti Patel, Vishnupriya Rao Paturi, Katherine Paulson, Swayam Prakash, Caroline Purcell, Prabhat Ranjan, Satar Rezaei, Ali Rostami, Ehsan Sadeghi, Mahdi Safdarian, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Sundeep Salvi, Bruno Piassi Sâo José, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Arundhati R Sawant, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Mehdi Shahbazi, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Peilin Shi, Farhad Shokraneh, Si Si, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Narinder Pal Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Soheila Sobhani, Michelle Subart, Ipsita Sutradhar, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, T. Tekalign, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Binyam Tilahun, Quyen G. To, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Derrick Tsoi, Rachel L Updike, Muhammad Usman, Afsane Vaezi, Santos Villafaina, Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew, Fitsum Weldegebreal, T. Eoin West, Justyna Widecka, Yun-Chun Wu, Grant M. A. Wyper, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Alex Yeshaneh, Engida Yisma, Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Mate Car, Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo, Adane Teshome Kefale, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Shahab Rezaeian, Rajeev Gupta, Long H. Nguyen, Dumessa Edessa, Kedir Teji Roba, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Nu Thi Truong, Farid Najafi, Monika Arora, Quique Bassat, Benjamin C Cowie, Ashish Bhalla, Berrak Bora Başara, Shifalika Goenka, Joseph Masci, Samir Soneji, Selen Begüm Uzun, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Payman Salamati, Krishna K Aryal, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Rizwan Kalani, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Thomas Hsiao, Nadia Akseer, Bereket Yakob, Kiran Rade, Erfan Amini, Pushpendra Kumar, Charlton Callender, Molla Abebe, Aklılu Abrham Roba, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Amha Admasie, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Raziye Özdemir, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Gerald Yonga, Mostafa Leili, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Sayem Ahmed, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Elena A. Varavikova, Justin R. Ortiz, John E Fuller, Sônia Lansky, Pratik P. Doshi, Narayan Prasad, Andrea B Feigl, Vladimir I. Starodubov, Gabriel Martínez, Sanjeev Nair, Ghulam Mustafa, Anthony Lin Zhang, Dirk Douwes‐Schultz, Ibrahim A Khalil, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Suryakant Tripathi, Stein Emil Vollset, Leo G Stewart, Hedley Quintana, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Ayele Geleto Bali, Kathy J. Jenkins, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Walid Ammar, Behzad Karami Matin, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Soumyadeeep Bhaumik, Kajori Banerjee, Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes, Ezra Belay, Tuhin Biswas, Kayvan Bozorgmehr, Clara Castro, Aarón Cohen, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Siddharth Kumar Das, Aditya Prasad Dash, Tizta T Degfie, Balem Demtsu, Reza Esmaeili, Mahdi Fakhar, Samuel Finegold, Bereket Gebremichael, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Yihua He, Mohsen Heidari, Mohammedaman Mama Hussen, Nazrul Islam, Moti Tolera Jalu, Hamidreza Karimi‐Sari, Zhila Kazemi, Dhruv Satish Kazi, Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam, Ihor Kuzin, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho, Dadi Marami, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Parvaneh Mirabi, Moslem Mohammadi, Ha Thu Nguyen, Andrea Parisi, Hadi Parsian, Ashwini Pujar, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Natacha Torres da Silva, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Belay Tessema, Gaurang Vaidya, Yanping Wang, Molla Mesele Wassie, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh
2018-11-01
SCID:  54.1/fdxrggh5 Discuss with AI
модель ансамбля причин смертиИсследование глобального бремени болезнейвозраст-стандартизированная смертностьсмертность по причинамгоды жизни, потерянные из-за преждевременной смерти
Abstract (AI)
ОБОСНОВАНИЕ: Глобальные цели развития всё чаще опираются на оценки на уровне отдельных стран для сопоставления прогресса государства. Для удовлетворения этой потребности исследование «Глобальное бремя болезней, травм и факторов риска» (GBD) 2016 года оценило глобальную, региональную, национальную и, для отдельных территорий, субнациональную смертность от конкретных причин, начиная с 1980 года. В настоящей работе представлен обновлённый вариант этого исследования, основанный на недавно полученных данных и усовершенствованных методах. GBD 2017 содержит комплексную оценку смертности от конкретных причин для 282 причин в 195 странах и территориях за период с 1980 по 2017 год. МЕТОДЫ: База данных причин смерти включает данные регистрации актов гражданского состояния (VR), вербальной аутопсии (VA), регистров, обследований, полиции и систем эпидемиологического надзора. В GBD 2017 были добавлены десять исследований вербальной аутопсии, данные регистрации актов гражданского состояния за 127 страна-лет, данные онкологических регистров за 502 страны-года и ещё один год наблюдения. Расширение иерархии причин смерти GBD позволило оценить 18 дополнительных причин в рамках GBD 2017. Новые данные обеспечили получение субнациональных оценок ещё для пяти стран — Эфиопии, Ирана, Новой Зеландии, Норвегии и России. Смертям, которым были присвоены коды Международной классификации болезней (МКБ), соответствующие неспецифическим, неправдоподобным или промежуточным причинам смерти, с помощью алгоритмов перераспределения назначали исходные причины; эти алгоритмы были включены в оценку неопределённости. Для расчёта долей причин и показателей смертности от конкретных причин для каждой территории, года, возрастной группы и пола использовали разработанные для GBD инструменты статистического моделирования, включая ансамблевую модель причин смерти (CODEm). В отличие от предыдущих версий, где использовались оценки ООН, в GBD 2017 численность населения и коэффициенты рождаемости были независимо оценены для всех территорий. Затем годы жизни, потерянные в результате преждевременной смерти (YLL), рассчитывали как сумму произведений числа смертей на стандартную ожидаемую продолжительность жизни в каждом возрасте. Все представленные здесь показатели являются стандартизованными по возрасту. РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ: При наиболее широком объединении причин смерти (уровень 1) неинфекционные заболевания (НИЗ) составляли вели...
Key Findings
1
Смертность по причинам и потерянные годы жизни оценивались статистическими моделями GBD, независимо рассчитанными численностью населения и рождаемостью; все показатели представлены с возрастной стандартизацией.
2
Расширение иерархии причин смерти добавило 18 оцениваемых причин, а улучшение данных позволило получить субнациональные оценки для Эфиопии, Ирана, Новой Зеландии, Норвегии и России.
3
GBD 2017 предоставляет комплексные оценки смертности по возрасту и полу для 282 причин в 195 странах и территориях за 1980–2017 годы.
4
Смерти, закодированные как неспецифические, неправдоподобные или промежуточные причины, перераспределялись на исходные причины с учётом неопределённости перераспределения.
5
Обновление включает новые данные: десять исследований вербальной аутопсии, 127 странолет наблюдений регистрации смертей, 502 странолет наблюдений онкологических регистров и один дополнительный страногод надзора.
Research Object

Возрастно-половая смертность по 282 причинам смерти в 195 странах и территориях за период 1980–2017 гг.

Research Subject

Глобальные, региональные и национальные показатели смертности по причинам, доли причин смерти и годы жизни, потерянные из-за преждевременной смерти, включая их временную и географическую вариабельность

Publication Details
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2018-11-01
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Authors
Kazem Rahimi
Norberto Perico
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Ashkan Afshin
Giuseppe Grosso
Amirhossein Sahebkar
Christopher J L Murray
Cristiana Abbafati
Foad Abd-Allah
Ahmed Abdelalim
Ibrahim Abdollahpour
Laith J. Abu‐Raddad
Victor Adekanmbi
Olatunji Adetokunboh
Gina Agarwal
Anurag Agrawal
Mehdi Ahmadi
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Rufus Akinyemi
Fares Alahdab
Ziyad Al‐Aly
Khurshid Alam
Shazia Alam
Syed Mohamed Aljunid
François Alla
Peter Allebeck
Jordi Alonso
Khalid A Altirkawi
Cătălina Liliana Andrei
Mina Anjomshoa
Johan Ärnlöv
Marcel Ausloos
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Alaa Badawi
Maciej Banach
Suzanne Barker‐Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Lope H. Barrero
Sanjay Basu
Bernhard T. Baune
Neeraj Bedi
Ettore Beghi
Yannick Béjot
Isabela M. Benseñor
Adam E. Berman
Zulfiqar A Bhutta
Ali Bijani
Boris Bikbov
Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed
Cristina Bosetti
Nicholas J. K. Breitborde
Hermann Brenner
Paul Svitil Briant
Gabrielle B. Britton
Zahid A Butt
Ismael Campos‐Nonato
Rosario Cárdenas
Giulia Carreras
Juan Jesús Carrero
Félix Carvalho
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
Franz Castro
Ester Cerin
Fiona Charlson
Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir
Hanne Christensen
Sheng‐Chia Chung
Flavia Cicuttini
Liliana G Ciobanu
Massimo Círillo
Ewerton Cousin
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
Paul I. Dargan
Ahmad Daryani
Rajat Das Gupta
José das Neves
Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu
Louisa Degenhardt
Gebre Teklemariam Demoz
Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez
Nikolaos Dervenis
Shirin Djalalinia
Клара Докова
Tim Driscoll
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
André Rodrigues Durães
David Edvardsson
Holly E Erskine
Sharareh Eskandarieh
Alireza Esteghamati
Mohammad Fareed
André Faro
Farshad Farzadfar
Valery L. Feigin
Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Eduarda Fernandes
Alize J Ferrari
Irina Filip
Florian Fischer
Nataliya A Foigt
Takeshi Fukumoto
João M. Furtado
Silvano Gallus
Alberto L. García‐Basteiro
William M. Gardner
Peter W. Gething
Paramjit Gill
Giorgia Giussani
E. V. Gnedovskaya
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Alessandra C. Goulart
H. C. Gugnani
Yuming Guo
Nima Hafezi‐Nejad
Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian
Arya Haj‐Mirzaian
Randah R Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
Graeme J. Hankey
Josep María Haro
Hadi Hassankhani
Rasmus Havmoeller
Simon I Hay
Claudiu Herţeliu
Fatemeh Heydarpour
Hans W. Hoek
Praveen Hoogar
Hung Chak Ho
Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
Mihaela Hostiuc
Sorin Hostiuc
Guoqing Hu
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
Usman Iqbal
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine
Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
Kathryn H. Jacobsen
Mihajlo Jakovljević
Spencer L James
Panniyammakal Jeemon
Ravi Prakash Jha
Vivekanand Jha
Catherine O. Johnson
Jost B. Jonas
Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak
Mikk Jürisson
Zubair Kabir
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
André Karch
Getachew Mullu Kassa
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
Ali Kazemi Karyani
Peter Njenga Keiyoro
Nauman Khalid
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
Mona M Khater
Yun Jin Kim
Ruth W Kimokoti
Adnan Kısa
Mika Kivimäki
Ann Kristin Knudsen
Jonathan Kocarnik
Sonali Kochhar
Jacek A Kopec
Parvaiz A Koul
Ai Koyanagi
Kewal Krishan
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G Anil Kumar
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James Leigh
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Babak Moazen
Shafiu Mohammed
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Mariam Molokhia
Lorenzo Monasta
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Paula Moraga
Lídia Morawska
Joana Morgado-da-Costa
Shane D. Morrison
Simin Mouodi
Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
Ulrich Müeller
Satinath Mukhopadhyay
Kamarul Imran Musa
Muthupandian Saravanan
Gabriele Nagel
Vinay Nangia
Jobert Richie Nansseu
Ionuţ Negoi
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Minh Nguyen
Molly R Nixon
Shuhei Nomura
Bo Norrving
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Christopher M Odell
Felix Akpojene Ogbo
In‐Hwan Oh
Andrew T Olagunju
Bolajoko O. Olusanya
Jacob Olusegun Olusanya
Sok King Ong
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Alberto Ortíz
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Simon Øverland
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P A Mahesh
Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas
Charles Parry
George Patton
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Michael Phillips
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Ira Martopullo
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Awoke Temesgen Misganaw
Noushin Mohammadifard
Ruxandra Irina Negoi
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Alireza Rafiei
Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar
Stephen R. Robinson
Inbal Salz
Agus Sudaryanto
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Lauren B. Wilner
Shadrach Wilson
Sojib Bin Zaman
PN Sylaja
Mohamed Hegazy
Bruno Ramos Nascimento
Badr Hasan Sobaih
Ali Yadollahpour
Amit Arora
Solomón Mequanente Abay
Nicole Davis Weaver
Guy B. Marks
Georgy Lebedev
Chris Lonsdale
Smita Pakhalé
Sanghamitra Pati
Kai Zhang
D. Alex Quistberg
Muhammad Shahzeb Khan
Charles R. Newton
Richard Matzopoulos
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Nooshin Abbasi
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Kefyalew Addis Alene
Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei
Léopold Ndemnge Aminde
Nahla Anber
Megbaru Debalkie Animut
Mustafa Geleto Ansha
Zerihun Ataro
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Abel Fekadu Dadi
Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa
Jan‐Walter De Neve
Selina Deiparine
Getenet Dessie
Subhojit Dey
Mesfin Tadese Dinberu
David Teye Doku
Kerrie Doyle
Eleonora Dubljanin
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Charbel El Bcheraoui
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Hajer Elkout
Benjamin Er
Hamed Fakhim
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