Глобальная, региональная и национальная сравнительная оценка рисков 84 поведенческих, экологических и профессиональных, а также метаболических факторов риска или их кластеров в 195 странах и территориях, 1990–2017 гг.: систематический анализ для исследования «Глобальное бремя болезней — 2017»

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Ching‐Yu Cheng, Norberto Perico, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Ashkan Afshin, Dariush Mozaffarian, Giuseppe Grosso, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Christopher J L Murray, Cristiana Abbafati, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Gina Agarwal, Anurag Agrawal, Mehdi Ahmadi, Hamid Ahmadieh, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tomi Akinyemiju, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Shazia Alam, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Jason A Anderson, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Mina Anjomshoa, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Johan Ärnlöv, Marcel Ausloos, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Alaa Badawi, Kylie Ball, Shoshana H. Ballew, Maciej Banach, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lope H. Barrero, Sanjay Basu, Bernhard T. Baune, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Yannick Béjot, Isabela M. Benseñor, Neeraj Bhala, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Soufiane Boufous, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Andrey Briko, Gabrielle B. Britton, Richard T. Burnett, Zahid A Butt, Leah E. Cahill, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Juan Jesús Carrero, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Kate Causey, Kelly Cercy, Ester Cerin, Kai‐Lan Chang, Fiona Charlson, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Hanne Christensen, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Flavia Cicuttini, Massimo Círillo, Aaron J. Cohen, Owen R. Cooper, Ewerton Cousin, Albertino Damasceno, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Robert P Dellavalle, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Nikolaos Dervenis, Shirin Djalalinia, Клара Докова, Tim Driscoll, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, André Rodrigues Durães, David Edvardsson, Iqbal Elyazar, Holly E Erskine, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Mohammad Fareed, Andrea Farioli, André Faro, Valery L. Feigin, Eduarda Fernandes, Giannina Ferrara, Alize J Ferrari, Manuela L. Ferreira, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Takeshi Fukumoto, João M. Furtado, Emmanuela Gakidou, Silvano Gallus, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, William M. Gardner, Peter W. Gething, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Rakesh Ghosh, Paramjit Gill, Giorgia Giussani, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C. Goulart, H. C. Gugnani, Yuming Guo, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Josep María Haro, Hadi Hassankhani, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Claudiu Herţeliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hans W. Hoek, Praveen Hoogar, Hung Chak Ho, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsaïri, Guoqing Hu, Chantal Huynh, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Spencer L James, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S. Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Tanuj Kanchan, André Karch, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Nauman Khalid, Mona M Khater, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Luke D. Knibbs, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Sonali Kochhar, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Hans Kromhout, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Faris Lami, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Janni Leung, Miriam Levi, Shanshan Li, Lee‐Ling Lim, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah Al Mamun, Helena Manguerra, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Ashley Marks, Randall V. Martin, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Manu Raj Mathur, Kunihiro Matsushita, Pallab K Maulik, Colm McAlinden, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Kala M. Mehta, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Shane D. Morrison, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Ulrich Müeller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ashraf Nabhan, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Minh Nguyen, Molly R Nixon, Shuhei Nomura, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Christopher M Odell, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, Heather Orpana, Alberto Ortíz, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Simon Øverland, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Charles Parry, George Patton, David M. Pereira, Konrad Pesudovs, Hai Quang Pham, Michael Phillips, М. А. Пирадов, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Dietrich Plaß, Suzanne Polinder, Kevan R. Polkinghorne, Maarten J. Postma, Amir Radfar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Fatemeh Rajati, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Robert C. Reiner, Marissa B Reitsma, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Juan Á. Rivera, Sonia Rodríguez‐Ramírez, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Enrico Rubagotti, Perminder S. Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Yahya Safari, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Nasir Salam, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Joshua A. Salomon, Abdallah M Samy, Tania G Sánchez-Pimienta, Damian Santomauro, Itamar S Santos, João Vasco Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, María Inês Schmidt, Aletta E. Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Marc L. Serre, Amira Shaheen, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Kenji Shibuya, Mika Shigematsu, Min‐Jeong Shin, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Soraya Siabani, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir, João Pedro Silva, Ambrish Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Moslem Soofi, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, Ireneous N Soyiri, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Dan J. Stein, Leo Stockfelt, Mark A. Stokes, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Gerhard Sulo, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Ken Takahashi, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, George D. Thurston, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Anna E Torre, Mathilde Touvier, Bach Xuan Tran, Lorainne Tudor Car, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Pascual Valdéz, Aaron van Donkelaar, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Yasir Waheed, Yafeng Wang, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, J. Jason West, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Charles Wolfe, Gelin Xu, Simon Yadgir, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Yuichiro Yano, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Maigeng Zhou, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Michael Bräuer, Stephen S Lim, Leila Jahangiry, Elisabete Weiderpass, Akram Pourshams, K. Srinath Reddy, Patrick John Sur, Kairsten Fay, Leslie Cornaby, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Abebe Zegeye, Mohsen Afarideh, Sutapa Agrawal, Hamid Badali, Eduardo Bernabé, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, Maryam S. Farvid, João Carlos Fernandes, Morsaleh Ganji, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Richard F Gillum, S Harikrishnan, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Farhad Islami, Maria Jackson, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Fakher Rahim, Young‐Ho Khang, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Rafael Lozano, Winfried März, Toni Meier, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Gert Mensink, Mojde Mirarefin, Hossein Poustchi, Mostafa Qorbani, Rajesh Kumar, Colin D. Rehm, Juan Sanabria, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Olalekan A. Uthman, Giang Thu Vu, Tissa Wijeratne, Denis Xavier, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Semaw Ferede Abera, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari, Derrick Bennett, Jung‐Chen Chang, Rajiv Chowdhury, Michael H Criqui, David K Cundiff, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Eric L. Ding, Nayu Ikeda, Simerjot K Jassal, André Pascal Kengne, Daniel Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Li Y, Xiaofeng Liang, Giancarlo Logroscino, George A. Mensah, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Ivy Shiue, Vegard Skirbekk, Lela Sturua, Bryan L. Sykes, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Tien Yin Wong, Rupert Bourne, Sofia Androudi, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, John J. Huang, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Van Charles Lansingh, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Mehdi Yaseri, Shouling Wu, Gabrielle deVeber, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Josef Coresh, Khanh Bao Tran, Olatunde Aremu, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Gavin Shaddick, Matthew L. Thomas, Zanfina Ademi, Morgan E. Grams, Bruce Neal, Elke Schäeffner, Nancy Fullman, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Grant Nguyen, Elaine O. Nsoesie, Helen Elizabeth Olsen, Kossivi Agbélénko Afanvi, Ali Kiadaliri, Nadia Akseer, Ala’a Alkerwi, Ubai Alsharif, Azmeraw T. Amare, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Peter Azzopardi, Aleksandra Barać, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Michelle L. Bell, Adugnaw Berhane, Donal Bisanzio, Rohan Borschmann, Alexandra Bražinová, Rachelle Buchbinder, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Cyrus Cooper, Monica Cortinovis, Kebede Deribe, Don C. Des Jarlais, Manisha Dubey, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Aman Yesuf Endries, Talha Farid, Kyle J Foreman, Thomas Fürst, Neal D. Futran, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Ibrahim Ginawi, William Godwin, Hector Gómez‐Dantés, Philimon Gona, Rahul Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Alexis J. Handal, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Damian G Hoy, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Nader Jahanmehr, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Corine Karema, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Michael Kravchenko, Juan Liang, Raimundas Lunevičius, Marek Majdán, Wagner Marcenes, Peter Memiah, Anoushka Millear, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Pedro R. Olivares, Erika Ota, Eun‐Kee Park, Max Petzold, Julian David Pillay, Farhad Pishgar, Richie Poulton, Anwar Rafay, Mahfuzar Rahman, Saša Rajšić, Usha Ram, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Ambuj Roy, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, James G. Scott, Soraya Seedat, Edson Serván‐Mori, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sharma, Mark G. Shrime, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Luciano A. Sposato, Bruno Sunguya, Cassandra Szoeke, Nikhil Tandon, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, E. Murat Tuzcu, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Stephen G. Waller, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Lijing L. Yan, Zoubida Zaidi, Sanjay Zodpey, Kairat Davletov, Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold, Abdullah T Khoja, Kristopher J Krohn, Mohsen Mazidi, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Anne Elise Eggen, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Mehdi Sayyah, Marzieh Nojomi, Mohammad Khazaei, Judd L. Walson, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Behzad Heibati, Lesley Rushton, Emma Nichols, Jemal Abdela, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Mina G Adib, Belete Biadgo, Yazan Chaiah, Huyen Phuc, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tesfaye Kassa, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Ghulam Mustafa, Tinuke O Olagunju, Hosein Safari, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Mehdi Sharif, Mari Smith, Omar Temsah, Miguel Tortajada‐Girbés, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Ebrahim M Yimer, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Abdulaal Chitheer, Vladimir Hachinski, Misgan Legesse Liben, LG Mantovani, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Mete Şaylan, Haitham Shoman, Traolach Brugha, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, José Carmelo Adsuar, Marcel Yotebieng, Howard J. Hoffman, Carl Lachat, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Syed Mustafa Ali, Hedayat Abbastabar, Masoud Behzadifar, Tone Bjørge, Fernando de la Hoz, Meghnath Dhimal, Gulfaraz Khan, Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek, Prashant Mathur, Ravi Mehrotra, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Adrian Pană, Mario Šekerija, Nihal Thomas, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Yoshan Moodley, Eyal Oren, Jun She, Abdu A. Adamu, Oladimeji Adebayo, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Aminu K. Bello, Oliver J. Brady, Reinhard Busse, Ken Lee Chin, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Srinivas Goli, Ayman Grada, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Michael K. Hole, Ankur Joshi, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Young‐Eun Kim, Tufa Kolola, Manasi Kumar, Tim Lucas, Fabiana Madotto, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Noushin Mohammadifard, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Abhijit Pakhare, Alexandre C. Pereira, Alireza Rafiei, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Inbal Salz, Agus Sudaryanto, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Santosh Varughese, Sojib Bin Zaman, Sheila Cristina Ouriques Martins, Vanessa De la Cruz‐Góngora, Simona Giampaoli, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Kia Vosoughi, Ali Yadollahpour, Seana Gall, Tobias Pischon, Murray B. Stein, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Taren Sanders, Sanghamitra Pati, Charumathi Sabanayagam, Kai Zhang, Miao Li Chee, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Charles R. Newton, Neil Pearce, Jeffrey A Towbin, Degu Abate, Nooshin Abbasi, Olifan Zewdie Abil, Manfred Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Pawan Acharya, Sargis A. Aghayan, Alireza Ahmadi, Alaa Alashi, Seyed Moayed Alavian, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Nahla Anber, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Zerihun Ataro, Rakesh Ayer, Arefeh Babazadeh, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Meysam Behzadifar, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Robert S. Bernstein, Mircea Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, Suraj Bhattarai, Ver Bilano, Nigus Bililign, Brigette F. Blacker, Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Hsing‐Yi Chang, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Daniel Collado‐Mateo, Megan Costa, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Selina Deiparine, Getenet Dessie, Subhojit Dey, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, David Teye Doku, Kerrie Doyle, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Andem Effiong, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Ziad El‐Khatib, Ahmadali Enayati, Benjamin Er, Hamed Fakhim, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Mamata Ghimire, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Tiffany K Gill, Tanush Gupta, Caitlin Hawley, Akbar Hedayatizadeh‐Omran, Andualem Henok, Sousan Heydarpour, Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Amaha Kahsay, Manoochehr Karami, Narges Karimi, Dessalegn H Kassa, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Behzad Khafaei, Alireza Khajavi, Muhammad Ali Khan, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Daniel N Kiirithio, Deepesh Lad, Sheetal D Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Arman Latifi, Sonia Lewycka, Yu Liao, Rakesh Lodha, Stefan Ma, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Reza Majdzadeh, Ana-Laura Manda, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Varshil Mehta, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Habtamu Mitiku, Bahram Mohajer, Mousa Mohammadnia‐Afrouzi, Farnam Mohebi, Mehdi Moradinazar, Marilita M. Moschos, Kalayu Brhane Mruts, Achenef Asmamaw Muche, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Oumer Sada Muhammed, Kate Muller, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Nitish Naik, Nahid Neamati, Subas Neupane, Nguyễn Quỳnh Anh, Ha Nguyen, Huong Thanh Nguyen, Nam Ba Nguyen, Mehdi Noroozi, Hamid Reza Nouri, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammad Reza Nowroozi, Peter S. Nyasulu, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Rosana Pacella, Amir H. Pakpour, Shanti Patel, Snehal T Patil, Ajay Patle, Katherine Paulson, Oleguer Plana‐Ripoll, Swayam Prakash, Caroline Purcell, Manorama Purwar, Prabhat Ranjan, Satar Rezaei, Ali Rostami, Ehsan Sadeghi, Roya Safari‐Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Haniye Sadat Sajadi, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Yingying Sang, Bruno Piassi Sâo José, Mayank Sardana, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Arundhati R Sawant, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Azadeh Shafieesabet, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Heidar Sharafi, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Meenakshi Sharma, Peilin Shi, Farhad Shokraneh, Si Si, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Narinder Pal Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, David L. Smith, Soheila Sobhani, Michelle Subart, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, T. Tekalign, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Habtamu Temesgen, Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin, Binyam Tilahun, Quyen G. To, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Rachel L Updike, Muhammad Usman, Afsane Vaezi, Santos Villafaina, Isidora S Vujcic, Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew, Fitsum Weldegebreal, Justyna Widecka, Alison B. Wiyeh, Tomohide Yamada, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Alex Yeshaneh, Engida Yisma, Mohammad Zamani, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Sutapa Agrawal, Ayuk Betrand Tambe, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Batool Fatima, Adane Teshome Kefale, Habibolah Khazaie, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Rajeev Gupta, Esayas Haregot Hilawe, Kedir Teji Roba, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Nu Thi Truong, Zohreh Rahimi, Yanping Wang, Ashish Bhalla, Howard Hu, Teresa Shamah Levy, Nadine Steckling, Payman Salamati, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Rizwan Kalani, Thomas Hsiao, Josep M. Antó, Ranjani Somayaji, Jing Nie, Hao Zhang, Sarah C. Darby, Molla Abebe, Aklılu Abrham Roba, Akilew Awoke Adane, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Amha Admasie, Anju Aggarwal, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Komal Ali, Lambert Appiah, Krishna Kumar Aryal, Myriam Tobollik, Adrienne Chew, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Surya Kant, Taavi Tillmann, Fatemeh Momeniha, Mostafa Leili, Elena A. Varavikova, Abla Mehio Sibai, Jitendra Jonnagaddala, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Cho-il Kim, Jee-Young J Choi, Narayan Prasad, Andrea B Feigl, Archie Bleyer, Vladimir I. Starodubov, Justin J. Lang, Anthony Lin Zhang, Ibrahim A Khalil, Jayendra Sharma, Stein Emil Vollset, Angela Spinelli, Jürgen Rehm, Samiah Alam, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nobuo Nishi, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Ayele Geleto Bali, Walid Ammar, Behzad Karami Matin, Hue Thi Mai, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Seyed M Karimi, Hayley Tymeson, Vidhya Venkateswaran, Ezra Belay, Tuhin Biswas, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Reza Ghadimi, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Mohsen Heidari, Zhila Kazemi, Ihor Kuzin, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Moslem Mohammadi, Hadi Parsian, Belay Tessema, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, Deepak Paudel, Sree Bhushan Raju, Gilles Bergeron, Samantha Leigh Larson, Goura Kishor Rath, Hamid Sharifi, Eyasu Tamru Bekru, Aditya Prasad Dash, Helen Derara Diro, Natalie Ebert, Jonas D. Finger, Daniela S. Gutiérrez‐Torres, Tarig B. Higazi, Mamusha Aman Hussen, Sudhir Kumar Jain, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Chittaranjan Kar, Ísis Eloah Machado, Fantahun Ayenew Mekonnen, Wayra Citlali Paz Ballesteros, Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu, Yesenia Román, Devashri Salvi, Mehdi Shahbazi, Matthew Shupler, Goran Stevanović, Andrew Theis, Hannah J. Thomas, Luis Zavala‐Arciniega
2018-11-01
SCID:  54.1/nqdbfmjs Discuss with AI
Исследование глобального бремени болезнейсоциодемографический индекссравнительная оценка рисковDALY, обусловленные факторами рискатеоретически минимальный уровень воздействия риска
Abstract (AI)
Сравнительная оценка рисков (CRA), проведённая в рамках исследования «Глобальное бремя болезней, травм и факторов риска» (GBD) 2017, представляет собой комплексный подход к количественной оценке факторов риска и является полезным инструментом для обобщения доказательств о рисках и связях между рисками и исходами. В каждом ежегодном исследовании GBD мы обновляем CRA, включая усовершенствованные методы, новые риски и пары «риск–исход», а также новые данные об уровнях воздействия рисков и связях между рисками и исходами. Мы использовали разработанную для предыдущих итераций GBD методологическую основу CRA, чтобы оценить уровни и тенденции воздействия, число смертей, attributable к рискам, и число лет жизни, скорректированных по нетрудоспособности (DALY), attributable к рискам, с разбивкой по возрастным группам, полу, годам и территориям для 84 поведенческих, экологических и профессиональных, а также метаболических факторов риска или групп факторов риска за период с 1990 по 2017 год. В исследование вошли 476 пар «риск–исход», соответствовавших критериям GBD для убедительных или вероятных доказательств причинной связи. Мы извлекли оценки относительного риска и воздействия из 46 749 рандомизированных контролируемых исследований, когортных исследований, обследований домохозяйств, данных переписей населения, спутниковых данных и других источников. Для объединения данных, корректировки систематической ошибки и учёта ковариат мы применяли статистические модели. Используя контрфактический сценарий теоретически минимального уровня воздействия риска (TMREL), мы оценили долю смертей и DALY, которую можно было отнести к определённому фактору риска. Мы изучили взаимосвязь между развитием и воздействием рисков, моделируя связь между социодемографическим индексом (SDI) и распространённостью воздействия с учётом весов риска, а также оценили ожидаемые уровни воздействия и бремя, attributable к рискам, в зависимости от SDI. Наконец, мы изучили временные изменения DALY, attributable к рискам, разложив их на шесть основных компонентов, обусловливающих изменения: (1) рост численности населения; (2) изменения возрастной структуры населения; (3) изменения воздействия экологических и профессиональных рисков; (4) изменения воздействия поведенческих рисков; (5) изменения воздействия метаболических рисков; и (6) chang...
Key Findings
1
Статистические модели объединяли доказательства, корректировали систематические ошибки, учитывали ковариаты и оценивали бремя болезней, attributable каждому риску относительно теоретически минимального уровня воздействия.
2
Сравнительная оценка рисков GBD 2017 количественно охватила уровни воздействия, attributable deaths и DALY для 84 рисков в 195 странах и территориях в период 1990–2017 годов.
3
Анализ включал 476 пар «риск—исход», подтверждённых убедительными или вероятными причинными доказательствами, с использованием данных 46 749 рандомизированных исследований, когортных исследований, опросов, переписей, спутниковых источников и других наборов данных.
4
Исследование оценивало связь воздействия рисков и attributable burden с социодемографическим индексом, а также разлагало временные изменения attributable DALY на демографические, популяционные и связанные с изменением воздействия и метаболических рисков факторы.
Research Object

84 поведенческих, экологических и профессиональных, а также метаболических факторов риска или их кластеров, оценённых на глобальном, региональном и национальном уровнях для 195 стран и территорий (1990–2017)

Research Subject

Глобальные, региональные и национальные уровни и тенденции экспозиции, связанные с рисками смерти и DALY, связи между рисками и исходами, а также обусловленные развитием и временные факторы бремени, связанного с рисками

Publication Details
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2018-11-01
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Authors
Ching‐Yu Cheng
Norberto Perico
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Ashkan Afshin
Dariush Mozaffarian
Giuseppe Grosso
Amirhossein Sahebkar
Christopher J L Murray
Cristiana Abbafati
Foad Abd-Allah
Ahmed Abdelalim
Ibrahim Abdollahpour
Laith J. Abu‐Raddad
Victor Adekanmbi
Olatunji Adetokunboh
Gina Agarwal
Anurag Agrawal
Mehdi Ahmadi
Hamid Ahmadieh
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Tomi Akinyemiju
Fares Alahdab
Ziyad Al‐Aly
Khurshid Alam
Shazia Alam
Syed Mohamed Aljunid
François Alla
Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi
Khalid A Altirkawi
Jason A Anderson
Cătălina Liliana Andrei
Mina Anjomshoa
Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
Jalal Arabloo
Johan Ärnlöv
Marcel Ausloos
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Alaa Badawi
Kylie Ball
Shoshana H. Ballew
Maciej Banach
Suzanne Barker‐Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Lope H. Barrero
Sanjay Basu
Bernhard T. Baune
Neeraj Bedi
Ettore Beghi
Yannick Béjot
Isabela M. Benseñor
Neeraj Bhala
Zulfiqar A Bhutta
Ali Bijani
Boris Bikbov
Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed
Soufiane Boufous
Nicholas J. K. Breitborde
Hermann Brenner
Andrey Briko
Gabrielle B. Britton
Richard T. Burnett
Zahid A Butt
Leah E. Cahill
Ismael Campos‐Nonato
Rosario Cárdenas
Giulia Carreras
Juan Jesús Carrero
Félix Carvalho
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
Franz Castro
Kate Causey
Kelly Cercy
Ester Cerin
Kai‐Lan Chang
Fiona Charlson
Vijay Kumar Chattu
Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir
Hanne Christensen
Sheng‐Chia Chung
Flavia Cicuttini
Massimo Círillo
Aaron J. Cohen
Owen R. Cooper
Ewerton Cousin
Albertino Damasceno
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
Paul I. Dargan
Ahmad Daryani
Rajat Das Gupta
José das Neves
Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu
Diego De Leo
Louisa Degenhardt
Robert P Dellavalle
Gebre Teklemariam Demoz
Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez
Nikolaos Dervenis
Shirin Djalalinia
Клара Докова
Tim Driscoll
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
André Rodrigues Durães
David Edvardsson
Iqbal Elyazar
Holly E Erskine
Sharareh Eskandarieh
Alireza Esteghamati
Kara Estep
Mohammad Fareed
Andrea Farioli
André Faro
Valery L. Feigin
Eduarda Fernandes
Giannina Ferrara
Alize J Ferrari
Manuela L. Ferreira
Irina Filip
Florian Fischer
Nataliya A Foigt
Takeshi Fukumoto
João M. Furtado
Emmanuela Gakidou
Silvano Gallus
Alberto L. García‐Basteiro
William M. Gardner
Peter W. Gething
Keyghobad Ghadiri
Rakesh Ghosh
Paramjit Gill
Giorgia Giussani
E. V. Gnedovskaya
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Alessandra C. Goulart
H. C. Gugnani
Yuming Guo
Nima Hafezi‐Nejad
Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian
Arya Haj‐Mirzaian
Randah R Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
Graeme J. Hankey
Josep María Haro
Hadi Hassankhani
Rasmus Havmoeller
Simon I Hay
Claudiu Herţeliu
Fatemeh Heydarpour
Hans W. Hoek
Praveen Hoogar
Hung Chak Ho
Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
Mihaela Hostiuc
Sorin Hostiuc
Mohamed Hsaïri
Guoqing Hu
Chantal Huynh
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
Usman Iqbal
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine
Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
Kathryn H. Jacobsen
Mihajlo Jakovljević
Spencer L James
Panniyammakal Jeemon
Ravi Prakash Jha
Vivekanand Jha
John S. Ji
Jost B. Jonas
Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak
Mikk Jürisson
Zubair Kabir
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
Tanuj Kanchan
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Ali Kazemi Karyani
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Nauman Khalid
Mona M Khater
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Adnan Kısa
Mika Kivimäki
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Jeffrey V. Lazarus
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Janni Leung
Miriam Levi
Shanshan Li
Lee‐Ling Lim
Shai Linn
Shiwei Liu
Alan D Lopez
Stefan Lorkowski
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Azeem Majeed
Reza Malekzadeh
Déborah Carvalho Malta
Abdullah Al Mamun
Helena Manguerra
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Joemer C Maravilla
Ashley Marks
Randall V. Martin
Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo
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Kunihiro Matsushita
Pallab K Maulik
Colm McAlinden
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Seid Tiku Mereta
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Ted R. Miller
GK Mini
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Babak Moazen
Shafiu Mohammed
Ali H. Mokdad
Mariam Molokhia
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Paula Moraga
Lídia Morawska
Joana Morgado-da-Costa
Shane D. Morrison
Simin Mouodi
Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
Ulrich Müeller
Satinath Mukhopadhyay
Kamarul Imran Musa
Ashraf Nabhan
Farid Najafi
Vinay Nangia
Jobert Richie Nansseu
Ionuţ Negoi
Josephine W Ngunjiri
Huong Lan Thi Nguyen
Minh Nguyen
Molly R Nixon
Shuhei Nomura
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Jean Jacques Noubiap
Christopher M Odell
Felix Akpojene Ogbo
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Andrew T Olagunju
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Charles Parry
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Konrad Pesudovs
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Kevan R. Polkinghorne
Maarten J. Postma
Amir Radfar
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Fatemeh Rajati
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David Laith Rawaf
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Robert C. Reiner
Marissa B Reitsma
André M. N. Renzaho
Serge Resnikoff
Juan Á. Rivera
Sonia Rodríguez‐Ramírez
Leonardo Roever
Luca Ronfani
Gholamreza Roshandel
Gregory A. Roth
Dietrich Rothenbacher
Enrico Rubagotti
Perminder S. Sachdev
Basema Saddik
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam
Yahya Safari
Sare Safi
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Damian Santomauro
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Aletta E. Schutte
David C. Schwebel
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Sadaf G Sepanlou
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Aziz Sheikh
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Mika Shigematsu
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Rahman Shiri
Reza Shirkoohi
Soraya Siabani
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Francesco Saverio Violante
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Harvey Whiteford
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K. Srinath Reddy
Patrick John Sur
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Hamid Badali
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Rafael Lozano
Winfried März
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Yohannes Adama Melaku
Gert Mensink
Mojde Mirarefin
Hossein Poustchi
Mostafa Qorbani
Rajesh Kumar
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Juan Sanabria
Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja
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Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar
Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman
Mohammad Ali Sahraian
Mehdi Yaseri
Shouling Wu
Gabrielle deVeber
María Dolores Sánchez-Niño
Josef Coresh
Khanh Bao Tran
Olatunde Aremu
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Zanfina Ademi
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Ala’a Alkerwi
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Soraya Seedat
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Masood Ali Shaikh
Rajesh Sharma
Mark G. Shrime
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Kebede Embaye Gezae
Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman
Tekleberhan B Hagos
Tesfaye Kassa
Yirga Legesse Nirayo
Ghulam Mustafa
Tinuke O Olagunju
Hosein Safari
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Mehdi Sharif
Mari Smith
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Andrea Sylvia Winkler
Ebrahim M Yimer
Amani Nidhal Aichour
Ibtihel Aichour
Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour
Abdulaal Chitheer
Vladimir Hachinski
Misgan Legesse Liben
LG Mantovani
Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum
Mete Şaylan
Haitham Shoman
Traolach Brugha
Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh
José Carmelo Adsuar
Marcel Yotebieng
Howard J. Hoffman
Carl Lachat
Ayman Al‐Eyadhy
Syed Mustafa Ali
Hedayat Abbastabar
Masoud Behzadifar
Tone Bjørge
Fernando de la Hoz
Meghnath Dhimal
Gulfaraz Khan
Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek
Prashant Mathur
Ravi Mehrotra
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad
Adrian Pană
Mario Šekerija
Nihal Thomas
Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone
Yoshan Moodley
Eyal Oren
Jun She
Abdu A. Adamu
Oladimeji Adebayo
Mehran Alijanzadeh
Aminu K. Bello
Oliver J. Brady
Reinhard Busse
Ken Lee Chin
Paolo Angelo Cortesi
Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Amiran Gamkrelidze
Srinivas Goli
Ayman Grada
Behnam Heidari
Delia Hendrie
Michael K. Hole
Ankur Joshi
Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie
Young‐Eun Kim
Tufa Kolola
Manasi Kumar
Tim Lucas
Fabiana Madotto
Benjamin B. Massenburg
Awoke Temesgen Misganaw
Noushin Mohammadifard
Ruxandra Irina Negoi
Abhijit Pakhare
Alexandre C. Pereira
Alireza Rafiei
Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar
Inbal Salz
Agus Sudaryanto
Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla
Santosh Varughese
Sojib Bin Zaman
Sheila Cristina Ouriques Martins
Vanessa De la Cruz‐Góngora
Simona Giampaoli
Bruno Ramos Nascimento
Badr Hasan Sobaih
Kia Vosoughi
Ali Yadollahpour
Seana Gall
Tobias Pischon
Murray B. Stein
Berihun Assefa Dachew
Taren Sanders
Sanghamitra Pati
Charumathi Sabanayagam
Kai Zhang
Miao Li Chee
Muhammad Shahzeb Khan
Charles R. Newton
Neil Pearce
Jeffrey A Towbin
Degu Abate
Nooshin Abbasi
Olifan Zewdie Abil
Manfred Accrombessi
Dilaram Acharya
Pawan Acharya
Sargis A. Aghayan
Alireza Ahmadi
Alaa Alashi
Seyed Moayed Alavian
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei
Nahla Anber
Megbaru Debalkie Animut
Mustafa Geleto Ansha
Zerihun Ataro
Rakesh Ayer
Arefeh Babazadeh
Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub
Meysam Behzadifar
Yihalem Abebe Belay
Robert S. Bernstein
Mircea Beuran
Tina Beyranvand
Suraj Bhattarai
Ver Bilano
Nigus Bililign
Brigette F. Blacker
Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm
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